According to Reuters, as soon as Wednesday, President Joe Biden’s administration could announce it is extending another $750 million in military assistance for Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion. Separately, the Pentagon is hosting leaders from eight weapons and defense manufacturers to discuss the industry’s capacity to meet Ukraine’s needs in case the war with Russia lasts for years.

These announcements are just one indication of how the world, the financial markets, and potentially, our futures have changed in the last two months. There is no denying that energy prices were trending higher well before Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. However, energy, grains, metals, Russia, Ukraine, inflation, financial markets, and politics are now irrefutably intertwined in an inflationary quagmire. This war-induced combination is not really something the Fed has the tools to fix. And in our opinion, this is why the consensus has flipped from optimism to pessimism about the US economy and is worried about a Fed-induced recession. We are too.

Other headlines are also disconcerting: the possibility of Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine, eurozone banks becoming risk averse and tightening corporate credit, and China shutting down Shanghai due to the spread of a COVID variant. It is a mixed collection of news, but individually and together, it points to substantially weaker growth or potentially a global recession.

Stay Defensive

We contemplated raising cash this week, however, we still believe select stocks can do well despite these challenges. In fact, some companies will benefit. Therefore, we remain overweight the energy sector, industrials (with an emphasis on defense stocks), consumer staples, and utilities. Each of these sectors is a direct, or indirect, beneficiary of the current world condition. Utilities are not a direct beneficiary, but they are defensive, can pass on costs to consumers and are preferable to bonds in an era of rising interest rates.

Inflation continues to Roar

The March CPI report was filled with bad news. Headline inflation exceeded expectations showing prices rising 8.5% YOY with core inflation up 6.5% YOY. Both series displayed the highest inflation in 40 years. Energy rose 32.2% YOY, up from 25.7% in February. Food prices rose 8.8% YOY, up from 7.9% in February. Services rose 4.7% YOY, up from 4.4% YOY. Goods inflation “moderated” to 11.7% YOY, down from 12.4% YOY in February. See page 3. The March CPI report indicates why the average household is struggling to keep up with normal expenses even though average weekly earnings rose 4.6% YOY in March. After inflation, the purchasing power of consumers fell nearly 4% YOY in March.

All the large segments of the CPI – housing, food & beverages, medical care, and transportation – have been experiencing escalating price increases over the last six months. See page 4. Many economists, like Larry Summers, are voicing concerns about the probability of a recession in the next two years; and not surprisingly, most strategists fear the Fed will trigger a recession by raising interest rates too much or too fast.

A History Lesson

However, history suggests that today’s inflation rate has reached a level that may make a recession inevitable. On page 4, we show a long-term chart of the S&P 500, various inflation benchmarks, and recessions. It shows that the last time inflation began to soar at this pace was during the oil embargo of 1973. That inflation was followed by three recessions in the subsequent ten years.

This era was called the “great inflation” and it began in late 1972 and did not end until the early 1980s. In his book “Stocks for the Long Run: A Guide for Long-Term Growth“ (1994), our friend Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel, called it “the greatest failure of American macroeconomic policy in the postwar period.” This decade-long inflation era has been blamed on many things: oil prices, the end of the gold standard in 1973, funding of The Great Society legislation, greedy businessmen, food shortages due to bad weather, and avaricious union leaders. But, according to Professor Siegel, the root cause of the great inflation was monetary policies that financed massive budget deficits driven by political leaders and their legislation. This should sound familiar.

The great inflation ended with Paul Volcker, Chair of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. Volker made financial history in March 1980 when he raised the fed funds rate from 14% to 20%, its highest level on record. It was tough love but needed in order to end years of crippling double-digit inflation. Volker also moved the fed funds rate back to 20% in May 1981 when inflation began to creep higher. Although widely criticized at the time, the March 1980 “Volker Shock” is now seen as a courageous and wise act. Both rate hikes to 20% were followed by recessions, but in the end, it finally broke the back of a dangerous inflationary cycle.

Perhaps this was the history lesson discussed at the March FOMC meeting. If so, it would explain why dovish Fed governors like Lael Brainard suddenly become monetary hawks. The current Fed seems determined to enforce tough love on the economy in 2022 by raising interest rates and contracting its balance sheet. We believe both are needed. Unfortunately, it also raises the risk of recession.

Earnings Season

This week kicks off first quarter earnings season, and while all earnings seasons are important, this time analysts will be listening carefully to hear what corporate leaders have to say about revenues and margins. As we show on page 6, inflation is apt to pressure margins this year and we already discussed how inflation will decrease the purchasing power of households. IBES currently is forecasting earnings growth in the first quarter of 6.1% YOY but excluding energy growth falls to 0.6%. Clearly, any disappointments this quarter could tip the balance to negative for the quarter. Again, we would emphasize companies that benefit from the current environment, have predictable earnings streams, and safe dividend yields.

Technical Events

In our view, the most meaningful technical event of the last week was the inability of the DJIA to better the resistance found at 35,000. A convergence of three key moving averages made this a critical point for the index, and the DJIA not only failed to break through but has been noticeably weak in recent sessions. All the popular indices have a similar pattern, but it was most clearly seen in the DJIA. In short, all major indices continue to trade below their 200-day moving averages in a classic bearish pattern. AAII sentiment has been unusually volatile. Last week, bullish sentiment fell 7.2 points to 24.7% while bearish sentiment jumped 13.9 points to 41.4%. Pessimism has been above 40% for nine of the last 12 weeks. Optimism has been below 27.9% for 10 of the last 13 weeks. Neutral has been above average for the third consecutive week. Overall, the AAII bull/bear spread remains positive.   

Gail Dudack

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The Russian war on Ukraine continues and the news from the battlefronts are disturbing. Global sanctions on Russia, Russian companies, and their corporate leaders and oligarchs escalated this week as well with the hope that the financial pain inflicted by sanctions may deter President Putin from his aggressive path. In a lengthy statement this week, US Treasury Department listed companies and individual corporate leaders known to be used to evade recent sanctions, and imposed measures to close loopholes and prevent them from operating or procuring western technology. All property, interests in property, and assets in the US, including all financial assets in US banks, of individuals listed by the Treasury, are now frozen and cannot be used to pay interest on loans or perform any business transactions. Injunctions were expanded to include aerospace, marine, and electronics sectors.

In addition, the US and Germany jointly sanctioned the world’s largest and most prominent darknet market, Hydra Market, in a coordinated effort to disrupt malicious cybercrime services, sales of dangerous drugs, or other illegal offerings available on the Russian-based site. German Federal Criminal Police shut down Hydra servers in Germany and seized $25 million worth of bitcoin. Garantex, a ransomware-enabling virtual currency exchange founded in late 2019, was also sanctioned. All of these measures, and the sanctions ordered before this week, are meant to cripple Russia’s economy and provoke sovereign and corporate debt defaults.

Meanwhile, Britain ordered a report into shale gas fracking on Tuesday, less than three years after banning the practice, saying all options should be available in light of a Ukraine crisis-fueled surge in gas prices. We applaud this shift, but it also reveals the misjudgment of the UN-sponsored Paris Agreement on climate change. Western countries made major steps to decrease fossil fuel production, but these steps only opened the door for oil-rich countries like Russia to take control of the world’s energy markets. In our view, the path to renewable fuel should have been done in conjunction with the US remaining energy independent, not before.

Yield Curve Fears

However, none of these issues reversed the March rally. Instead, it was Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, one of the Fed’s most dovish governors. She stated that a combination of interest rate hikes and balance sheet runoffs were needed to quickly move monetary policy to a more neutral position this year. The implication was that the Fed is clearly set on a hawkish path in 2022 to contain inflation. This week’s release of the March FOMC meeting minutes is expected to provide more details of the Fed’s plans.

However, as we just pointed out, today’s inflation is not simply a demand-driven cycle that the Fed can contain. It has materialized from a diminished supply of energy, particularly in fossil fuels. It came from a lack of investment. It is policy driven. It is man-made. In short, the Fed will have a difficult time trying to tame current price increases. Moreover, since Russia and Ukraine are the breadbasket of Europe food and meat prices will also rise this summer. This is a raw material inflation cycle, and the Fed does not have the tools to fix it, without perhaps triggering a recession.

In our opinion, the obsession with the yield curve and a possible inversion is really based upon these underlying facts. Yes, the Fed was too slow to change policy to control inflation, but the cycle is now exacerbated by geopolitical events that are not under their control. This is a cause for concern.

Plus, the sanctions imposed on Russia are meant to create defaults on loans, and this too, will have repercussions. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon made two important comments recently. First, he indicated that the Fed could lift interest rates by more than 2.5% this year, more than most expect. Second, he indicated that the bank may need to take as much as a $1 billion of reserves against Russian debt.

Sector Weighting Shifts

Our main concern is that a combination of inflation-induced margin erosion, a rising cost of capital, and write-offs related to Russia, either from corporations exiting businesses in Russia or defaults from Russian debt, will weigh heavily on earnings performance this year. For these reasons, we remain cautious and believe investors should seek safety in areas that are insulated from these risks. These areas include energy, staples, cybersecurity, and aerospace and defense. We are upgrading utilities from underweight to overweight this week because we believe high dividend-paying stocks will be in demand as bond prices fall. Utilities are also able to pass on energy costs to consumers. We are also lowering our weighting on the technology sector from overweight to neutral. This is more in line with our view that technology stocks will be one of the most volatile areas of the market in 2022 and while trading opportunities arise, they may not provide the best intermediate-term strategy – with the exception of cybersecurity. Lastly, we are lowering the REIT sector from neutral to underweight due to the pressures we anticipate from higher interest rates and rising costs. See page 13.

Economic Releases

The final estimate for fourth quarter 2021 GDP growth was 6.9%, a nice improvement from the 2.3% pace seen in the third quarter. However, on page 3 we overlay the real 10-year Treasury note yield on real GDP growth. This shows that real yields are extremely negative, which historically has only been seen during a recession. Recent unnecessary stimulus explains the historic level of inflation we are currently experiencing and points out why interest rates must go much higher this year. The Fed’s task is now extremely difficult and the risk of too much tightening and an inverted yield curve is real.

The major contributor to growth in the fourth quarter was gross private investment, while personal consumption of goods was barely positive, and consumption of services rose modesty. Unfortunately, the largest contributor to private investment was a buildup of inventories, and this could dampen growth in the first quarter of this year.

Staying at home or traveling by car became the norm during the COVID pandemic and this contributed to strength in housing and autos. Auto sales have been a solid contributor to retail sales, but the pandemic boost appears to be over. Unit auto sales have been declining since mid-2021. In March, total unit sales of autos and light vehicles were 13.7 million, down 24% YOY. See page 5. The ISM manufacturing index slipped to 57.1 in March although employment, prices, and inventory rose. The main weakness in manufacturing was found in new orders and backlog of orders. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose slightly to 58.3 in March due primarily to strength in employment, new orders, and exports – all good signs. However, service business activity slipped a point to 55.5 in March. See page 6.

Gail Dudack

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Rumors of improving discussions between Russia and Ukraine helped foster a rally in equities this week. The advance generated changes in our technical indicators as well as in the charts of the popular indices. However, to date, there is nothing to suggest that recent gains are anything more than a short-covering rally coupled with institutional accounts making portfolio adjustments at the end of the first quarter.

At present, both equities and commodities, particularly crude oil, are experiencing tremendous volatility and appear to be captive to ever-changing headlines, but the underlying economy is little changed. Inflation continues to be a major threat; monetary policy is destined to be unfriendly, and the combination is apt to be detrimental to the economy, the consumer, and corporate profits. The real question is how big a hurdle the combination of rising prices and rising interest rates will be for economic activity, particularly for the housing and auto sectors.

This week we will get data on personal income and personal expenditures for February, March employment, final fourth quarter GDP with corporate profits, plus vehicle sales and the ISM manufacturing report for March. These reports should give investors a better feel for how businesses and consumers are reacting to the Russian invasion, inflation, and rising interest rates. More importantly, in the coming weeks earnings reports for the first quarter will begin and as we have noted in the past, this could become a market-moving event. History has shown that stock markets can perform well in an environment of rising interest rates – the caveat is that earnings must be rising faster than before to compensate. This seems unlikely to us, but if earnings are better than expected, this could provide good downside support for stock prices.

Housing is Weakening

An index of pending home sales fell to 104.9 in February. This was the lowest reading since May 2020 and the fourth consecutive month of declines. Note that monthly new single-family home sales peaked in July 2020 at 85,000 and the year-over-year growth rate in units sold has been negative since June 2021. Unit sales dropped to 65,000 in February. We expect that rising rates will make housing less affordable and unit sales will continue to fall. See page 3.

New home unit sales, including multi-family, single-family and condominiums, were 772,000 in February, a 6% decline from a year earlier. However, while unit sales are slipping, prices are rising, and the average price of a new single-family home rose 25% YOY to $511,000. The median price of a single-family home rose 10.7% YOY to $400,600. These price gains are significant. When we index personal income and home prices to a baseline like 1973 it becomes clear that from 2008 to 2021 personal income was consistently rising faster than home prices. That made homeownership more affordable. Sadly, this changed in 2022 and prices are now rising faster than personal income, and this is one reason homeownership may become more challenging later this year. See page 4.

GDP growth requires rising capital investment, and we fear housing may face a slowdown in the second half of this year. Residential construction spending was $50.3 billion (SAAR) in December, a solid 15.3% YOY increase, although a deceleration from the 31.8% YOY increase recorded at the May 2021 peak. At present, the residential construction market appears solid, but home builder confidence has been slipping in recent months. The National Association of Home Builders survey for single-family sales showed that “expectations for the next six months” fell to 70, the lowest level recorded since September 2019. In general, the survey shows that homebuilder confidence peaked in November 2020 and has been slowly declining since that time. Builders are indicating that pricing pressures and the knowledge that mortgage rates will be rising as factors that make them uncertain about the future. See page 5.

The Yield Curve

The 10-year note yield rose from 2.16% to 2.41% this week yet despite rates rising on the long end, fears of an inverted yield curve are escalating. In our view, an inverted yield curve requires inversion between the fed funds rate and the 10-year Treasury note yield to truly warn of a recession. Moreover, inverted yield curves have historically preceded recessions by six to twelve months, on average, and therefore the angst regarding an inversion today appears to be overdone and too early, in our opinion. However, given the expectations of seven to nine fed fund rate hikes this year, the risk of an inverted yield curve, and a recession in 2022, is a possibility. But keep in mind that the Fed has control over the short end of the curve, but not the long end of the curve. When investors believe the Fed has tightened too much, and a recession is at hand, this is when the long end of the curve collapses and the curve inverts. At present, interest rates are rising on the long end, and we find this a bit reassuring. See page 7.

Technical Indicators and Charts

The major head-and-shoulders top formation that we have been discussing in the S&P 500, that had downside targets of SPX 4000 and SPX 3800, was nullified this week by the advance seen in the SPX. The index rallied above all its moving averages, including the 200-day moving average, which is a positive for the overall market. See page 8.

In terms of technical strength, the SPX displayed the greatest price momentum in recent days. The DJIA also rallied and has edged above key resistance at the DJ 35,000 area. But we believe the DJIA needs to sustain this advance to demonstrate that this is not a false breakout. The Nasdaq Composite has moved up toward its resistance level defined by the combination of its 100-and 200-day moving averages, but it lags its counterparts and is yet to breach this resistance. See page 9.

The charts of the Russell 2000 index (RUT – $2133.10) and Amazon.com (AMZN – $3386.30) continue to look similar and since they were leaders at the top of the market it is also possible that they will be leaders at establishing a low in equities. AMZN is clearly outperforming the RUT; but the RUT is unfortunately the weakest of all the main market indices. It is about to test its 100-day moving average at 2143.85 and 200-day moving average at 2197.08 and we will be watching to see if this index can better resistance. Even so, while the SPX and DJIA have surpassed their respective resistance levels, further gains are required to confirm that these moves are indeed “breakouts” from resistance and not merely a short-covering rally and portfolio window dressing. See page 10. Our 25-day up/down volume oscillator is at 2.38 this week and close to an overbought reading above 3.0. An overbought reading would be surprising and suggest that the market is in a long-term trading range, not a bear market. The 10-day averages of new highs and lows are 133 and 177, respectively. Again, the combination implies a neutral market. Overall, we remain cautious for the near term.

Gail Dudack

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Current Reuters headlines include: “Russian strikes turn Mariupol into ashes of a dead land,” “Russia trades barbs at the UN with the US and UK about chemical weapons in Ukraine,” “Traders warn of Russia-related diesel and gas shortages in Europe,” “Fed policymakers lean into bigger rate hikes to fight inflation,” “Biden’s Supreme Court pick Ketanji Jackson defends representing Guantanamo detainees,” “Hackers hit authentication firm Okta (customers include FedEx and Moody’s Corp.),” and “Biden approval rating drops to a new low of 40% – Reuters/Ipsos poll. ” These headlines include a wide range of topics, yet each is individually disturbing. Nevertheless, this is the backdrop for what has been a healthy rally from the March lows.

The rebound has been greatest in technology stocks as seen by the 12% gain in the Nasdaq Composite index, as compared to the gains of 6.7% or 8.1% seen in the Dow Jones Industrial Average or S&P Composite index, respectively. However, the “outperformance” of technology should be expected since it has been the high PE stocks within the technology sector that have declined the most from all-time peaks made over the last five months.

The question, therefore, arises whether the current rally indicates the lows have been found, or if it is simply a short-term rotation of leadership from value to growth, i.e., a bounce within a larger bear market decline. In our opinion, the bear market has not ended even though it is possible that many stocks may have found their lows. Nonetheless, the landscape ahead remains treacherous, and we remain wary. Not only does the future include a hawkish Fed, but the risk of war in Europe, defaults of Russian sovereign debt, a consumer burdened by rampant inflation leaving little discretionary spending after transportation and food expenses, and therefore, a downside risk for earnings.

We have long been of the opinion that equities needed a valuation adjustment due to high inflation spurred on by too much monetary ease. And while equity prices were peaking before Russia invaded Ukraine, the war only exacerbates the existing problems. It translates into tremendous geopolitical uncertainty in the months ahead, and also means that diminished supplies of energy and grain will make the inflationary problem more severe. In short, if equities were facing a bear market in 2022; it is now worsened by the Russian invasion. This is a complex situation for a Federal Reserve, particularly since they were already slow to curb inflation. Strategists are now forecasting several 50 basis point rate hikes by the Fed and the Fed’s own dot-plot implies the fed funds rate will reach 2.8% by 2023. The sum of all this points to the risk of stagflation, the possibility of an inverted yield curve, and/or recession by the end of the year.

Valuation

In our view, the earnings results for the first quarter and the comments made by companies about earnings prospects for the full year could become a market-moving event. If companies are optimistic about earnings, it will provide fundamental support for equities. If not, pessimism could generate another selling wave. Keep in mind that our valuation model for 2022 indicates that the appropriate PE multiple is 15.8 times earnings, which also happens to be the average trailing PE over the last 75 years. In our view, this is where value is found in the broad equity market. A 15.8 multiple with our $220 earnings estimate for this year equates to a downside risk to SPX 3475. The S&P 500 may not have to fall this far, but to date, we do not believe the lows have been made.

Technically Speaking

From a technical perspective, all the indices have rebounded above their 50-day moving averages, which is well within the characteristics of a bear market rally. More importantly, the 100- and 200-day moving averages are trending on a path that suggests they may soon converge in the indices. If so, this converging will define important resistance points in the near term. In the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the 100-day moving average is 35,145 and the 200-day moving average is at 34,975, implying that the DJIA 35,000 area will be a critical level for the intermediate-term. See page 9. One hopeful sign is found in the S&P 500 index where the move above the 200-day moving average has the potential to negate the major head-and-shoulders top formation we have discussed in recent weeks. If the index betters the 100-day moving average, which is now at SPX 4550, this will help to neutralize this bearish pattern. See page 8.  

Economic Trends

Recent economic releases should be analyzed with the knowledge that the numbers preceded the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Fed’s first rate hike, and statements by board governors that the FOMC may become more hawkish in coming months.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales for February rose 0.3% month-over-month and 17.6% YOY. It should be noted that gas station sales rose 5.3% for the month and 34.6% YOY, which is the impact of higher gasoline prices. When auto and gasoline sales are excluded, retail sales fell 0.4% in the month, but still rose 15.8% YOY. The more interesting tidbit in retail sales data showed that February’s unadjusted retail sales fell 1.55% YOY; however, February or March tend to be the seasonal low point for retail sales. This means that March and April releases should be more revealing about the current status of household spending. See page 3.

The National Association of Home Builder confidence index fell from 81 in February to 79 in March, which marked the third consecutive month of declines. The sharpest decline in sentiment was seen in “sales expectations for the next six months” which fell from 80 to 70, the lowest reading since June 2020 during the pandemic. The pending home sales index is reported with a lag, but the January index fell to 109.5, its third consecutive decline and the lowest level seen since April 2021. Given the NAHB readings, we expect pending home sales will continue to fall. See page 4. Existing home sales for February were an annualized rate of 6.02 million, which was a 7.2% decline for the month and decline of 2.4% YOY. The weakest segment of the market was the northeast where sales were down 11.5% for the month and down 12.7% YOY. Nevertheless, the median sales price of a single-family existing home was $363,800, a gain of 15.5% from a year earlier. See page 5. The housing market will be one of the most important areas of the economy to monitor in the months ahead. Interest rates are clearly headed higher, but inventories remain low, and prices are steady. Wages are increasing, and this could offset some of the increase in housing costs. Still, there have been anecdotal stories of millennials who recently purchased homes but underestimated the cost of maintenance, taxes, and heating. In our opinion, all signals point to a slower housing market in the second half of 2022. And if rates rise quickly, the housing market could come to a quick halt. This will be a drag on GDP and will again, make the Fed’s job of taming inflation without throwing the economy into a recession all the more difficult. We remain cautious.   

Gail Dudack

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The big event of the week will be the Federal Reserve meeting and Chairman Jerome Powell’s commentary since monetary policy is expected to change for the first time in two years. The fed funds rate is expected to rise 25 basis points to a range of 25 to 50 basis points on Wednesday, and this will be the Fed’s first interest rate increase since December 2018. The shift is meaningful, but widely expected and fully priced into stock prices, in our opinion.

But while the Fed may be the media focus on Wednesday, the day is also notable for the fact that Russia has a $117 million payment due on US dollar-denominated Eurobond coupons. This will be the first of several key payments due on Russia’s sovereign debt in coming months and the first since the Fitch rating system downgraded Russian debt to a “C” rating, indicating that a sovereign default is imminent. Most economists now expect Russia to default since it has become the pariah of the Western banking world. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine many countries froze Russian reserves of dollars and euros held at banks and this crippled Russian liquidity and will make payment difficult. However, a nonpayment usually initiates a notice of a 30-day grace period to the issuer before defaults are officially triggered. Still, it will be interesting to see how Russia responds to this week’s likely default since it is apt to be the first of many. Several more payments will be coming due in the weeks ahead and we will be watching to see if these defaults have unexpected consequences. Russia’s debt is not large enough to worry about a major banking crisis, but it could result in some unexpected private losses.

To a large extent, the only response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been economic sanctions by the US and other NATO nations. Therefore, a sovereign debt default may be the first of many tests of how well Russia and its economy can weather the sanctions from the West and still continue to wage a costly war in Ukraine.

Oil and Interest Rates

The stock market rose ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting but this rally could have been due to a variety of factors. First, the price of WTI crude oil ($95.15) dropped $28.50 this week after jumping $20 last week. This decline was a welcomed event however, the technical chart of the WTI future shows it still remains above all its key moving averages and remains in an uptrend. Keep in mind that crude oil ended the year at $75 which means it is up 27% year-to-date, despite this pullback. See page 8.

We think the most interesting chart of the week is the 10-year Treasury note yield, which rose from 1.82% to 2.16%. This 34 basis-point jump, ahead of the Fed meeting is somewhat consoling since it reduces the immediate risk of an inverted yield curve, but we are curious about the move since it did not appear to be linked to “economic strength.” The risk of an inverted yield curve in 2022, and of a recession, continues to be significant in our opinion. In short, we believe this week’s equity rally is best for traders. Unfortunately, the problem that inflation brings, its impact on consumers, investors, profit margins, the Fed and PE multiples will not go away any time soon.

There will be a number of key economic releases this week including retail sales as well as industrial production, housing data, and construction spending. However, all this data will be for the month of February and will not include the impact the Russian invasion may have had on the American public. History suggests that wars tend to be good for the economy, but this is mainly true for the industrial sector. The US is a consumer-led economy and wars can have a negative impact on consumer psyche and consumer spending, particularly when the price of gasoline and food is rising rapidly.

Inflation

Headline inflation rose from 7.5% to 7.9% in February and core CPI rose from 6.0% to 6.5%. These numbers indicate that inflation continues to be a plague on the economy. Energy sector prices are the biggest issue, up 25.6% YOY in February. Nevertheless, inflation has become well-ingrained in the economy and all but 6.4% of the CPI weighting is rising well above the Fed’s target of 2%. See page 3. Transportation costs were up 21% YOY in February, the highest since early 1980.

As we anticipated, housing, which is 42.4% of the weighting of the CPI are now rising. Housing costs did not begin to rise until recently and had been a nice offset to rising fuel cost. But the housing sector saw prices up 5.95% YOY in February, the highest since early 1982. The worrisome issue is that housing costs are now accelerating dramatically and are adding to the inflation problem facing households. See page 4.

Producer price indices were also released this week and they show little signs of decelerating. The PPI for finished goods rose 13.8% YOY in February versus 12.5% YOY a month earlier. The core PPI for finished goods rose 7.7% YOY versus 7.0% in January. Only PPI final demand displayed any sign of stabilizing and was unchanged at a disturbingly high rate of 10.1% YOY. See page 5. The pace of inflation is a big concern, and it is now the steepest jump in prices since the OPEC oil embargo imposed on the US in 1973. The embargo in 1973 was related to the Arab-Israeli War and was imposed by OPEC when the US supplied Israel with military support. Note the US dependence on foreign oil and the impact this has on geopolitics. We find this to be a disturbing parallel in many ways.

The rise in inflation has now created a spread between the fed funds rate and inflation that is even larger than that seen in 1973. As we have often noted, the Fed’s failure to reduce monetary ease early last year to stem the growing tide of inflation, has now created a major problem. Our view of the number of fed funds rate hikes this year is evolving. It is likely that inflation will dampen consumption, weaken profit margins, and slow the US economy in 2022. The Fed must now balance between inflation and the risk of sparking a recession. It is a difficult decision.  

This risk is visible in sentiment indicators. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 59.7 in March, a new cyclical low. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased by 1.4 points to 95.7 in March, the second consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Twenty-six percent of owners surveyed reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business. This was a four-point increase since December and the highest reading since the third quarter of 1981. Not surprisingly, hiring plans fell from 26 to 19 in March. See page 6.

Little has changed in the technical area although the S&P 500 index has joined all the other indices in confirming a “death cross.” A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average and it is a negative configuration. But since a death cross tends to happen midway or late into a bear cycle, we do not find that meaningful. Still, we do not believe the lows have yet been found. Neither technical nor fundamental guidelines give us comfort this week, and both sets of indicators suggest there is more downside risk in the market. The safest equity sectors in the current environment are energy, staples, defense-related and companies that are insulated from inflation and have dividends greater than 2%. But we do believe a long-term opportunity to buy technology stocks is on the horizon.

Gail Dudack

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