July 2026

The second quarter of most years tends to be a mediocre time for the stock market, and this contributes to the Wall Street adage “sell in May and go away.” Historical data shows that of the four quarters of the year, the second quarter is the next-to-worst performing period, with an average gain of 2.5% to 3.0% in the S&P 500.

However, the second quarter of 2026 broke the mold. In the period the S&P 500 recorded a gain of 14%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 12.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index soared 19.6%. These were the best quarterly gains since the second quarter of 2020. As a refresher, stocks plunged in early 2020 in response to the global economic shutdown mandated due to the rapid spread of the COVID-19 virus, and the S&P 500 dropped 34% from its February 2020 peak to its March 2020 low, fell 12.5% in the month of March, and declined 20% in the first quarter of the year. In other words, the second quarter of 2020 brought a relief rally from a quick, but severe, bear market in the first quarter.

Solid Fundamentals and Good Liquidity

The S&P 500 lost 4.6% in the first quarter of this year due to the Iran conflict which triggered a major disruption in global oil supplies. But equities were surprisingly resilient in the face of numerous risks including worrisome inflation, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the instability and uncertainty in the Middle East, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Although some believe the stock market has been dangerously complacent given these risks, we disagree. The resilience of the 2026 stock market is directly tied to good US economic activity and impressive earnings growth. In fact, while the S&P 500 is up 21% from the June 2025 close, S&P Dow Jones consensus data shows S&P Composite earnings are up an estimated 22% in the same time frame. In short, the US equity market continues to be driven by earnings.

Bubble? Yes or No?

Some strategists warn that the 2026 equity market is a bubble waiting to burst. Again, we disagree. Late-stage bubbles are driven by extreme optimism, record high ownership of equities, leverage, and overvaluation. This does not describe the 2026 market which has been driven by strong earnings. The S&P 500 price earnings multiple based upon 2026 estimated earnings was 21.9 times in December 2025 and was 21.8 times earnings at the end of June 2026.

In terms of equity ownership, the Investment Company Institute reported money market funds totaled $7.9 trillion at the end of June and Federal Reserve data shows total household cash and cash equivalents (which includes money market funds) was an estimated $18.4 trillion at the end of March. This means that household cash equates to roughly 29% of US market capitalization of $74.5 trillion. This ratio is up from 28% at the end of 2025. In terms of extreme optimism, a late June survey from the American Association of Individual Investors shows less than 45% of all investors are bullish while 36% are bearish. This remains well below the 55% to 60% bullish ratio seen at recent market peaks. In short, stocks do not appear to be overvalued or over owned and in fact, there is significant cash on the sidelines. Solid earnings performance and high cash balances are two of the factors that underscore our long-term bullish outlook.

Others have argued that the equity market is driven by a small number of large capitalization AI-related stocks. However, the Russell 2000 index, which includes small and medium-sized companies, is up 20.9% year-to-date, which is far more than the gain in the S&P 500 index of 9.6%. In short, equity performance is much broader than just AI-related stocks. Others worry that the datacenter and infrastructure buildout is generating an unprecedented wave of debt issuance. Hyperscalers such as Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL – $357.37), Amazon.com (AMZN – $238.34), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT – $373.02), and Meta Platforms, Inc. (META – $563.29) are expected to spend $700 billion in outlays this year. AI-related global debt issuance was nearly $236 billion as of May 2026, four times greater than the same period a year ago. This could become a negative for these companies if AI demand falters, but at present and the foreseeable future, this does not appear to be so.

Gail Dudack, Chief Strategist

Click to Download

Exactly a year ago this quarterly report was analyzing the problems related to the administration’s newly announced tariff policy and the risk this posed to the equity market. We argued against the consensus view that tariffs would result in a significant jump in inflation and a weakening of the economy. Still, the S&P 500 Composite responded by dropping to 4982.77 on April 8, 2025 — a quick six-week decline of 19%. Looking back on the aftermath of the tariffs, inflation remained stable and GDP rose 3.8%, 4.4%, and 1.4% in the last three quarters of the year. These nine months proved to be the best three consecutive quarters of economic activity since December 2023. In short, consensus opinions do not always prove accurate.

Fast forward to April 2026 and the risk has turned from tariffs to Iran. In March, President Donald J. Trump initiated military operations against Iran, in what the administration has described as a “short term excursion” to thwart the threat the regime poses to world safety. This “war” may be beneficial to world wellbeing in the longer term, but in the short-to-intermediate term, the military and economic problems that a wounded, and perhaps leaderless, Iran creates are likely to be more difficult to manage, or resolve, than last year’s tariff concerns.

To the financial markets the primary risk of this war is how long Iran can restrict the supply of crude oil; and more importantly, how long will oil prices remain high. This is tied to how long Iran can control the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt the supply of oil. A secondary, but very important risk is that the conflict could escalate and result in further destruction of energy infrastructure in the Middle East. An Iranian attack on Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities already knocked out 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity and it is estimated that it will take two to three years for Qatar to recover from this damage. More impairment to energy infrastructure means energy prices could remain higher for longer and fuel inflation globally. Higher fuel prices will hurt economic growth, and this is particularly true for Europe and other non-fuel producing nations. But even for the US, which is not only energy efficient, but energy independent, there is risk that economic activity could be hurt if oil prices remain high.

One aspect of this war that has not been reported by the media is how this war may be shifting geopolitical power. At present, the Gulf Arab States are moving closer in line with President Trump (and Israel) and are pressing the US to continue the war. Meanwhile, most of Europe stands stoically in distant disagreement with the conflict. In our view, a broad coalition between the US, Israel, and the six Gulf States would create a powerful alliance in terms of energy production, military power, and economic strength. In the longer run, this could shift global dynamics in favor of the US, and weaken not just Iran, but Russia and China as well.

Technicals are breaking down

At the end of March, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 7.7% from its first quarter record high, the S&P 500 is nearly 6.5% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite index 9.9% below its record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite reached “correction territory” with losses of 10% or more earlier in the month but remained well above bear market range of a decline of 20% or more. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P, and the Nasdaq have all broken below their 200-day moving averages and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been trading for 19 consecutive trading sessions below this support level. This is the longest break since the 49 days seen in April and May 2025. The longer the indices remain below these moving averages, the more likely the March weakness is more than a simple correction. Moving averages can shift from being significant support levels to significant resistance levels. On the positive side, the broader Russell 2000 index is up 0.6% year-to-date, versus the 6.5% decline in the S&P 500 or 7.7% loss in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This indicates that the underlying market is more solid than the large capitalization indices and it is a sign of longer-term strength. 

As the first quarter ends and the war enters its second month, the Middle East turmoil is approaching a pivotal juncture. Ministers from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are meeting in Islamabad to come up with a plan to de-escalate the war or at least to open the Strait of Hormuz; however, Yemen’s Houthis recent attack on Israel heightens the risk of a wider conflict. Iran is denying rumors that its president is prepared to discuss a process to end the conflict and both the US and Iran are issuing threats. Given these conflicting actions and the uncertainty of what may happen next in the Middle East, we would be cautious in the near term.

Fundamentals remain strong

At the end of the first quarter, there were signs of continuing stress in the private credit markets with a growing number of funds restricting redemptions. However, while risk in private equity funds increases, it appears to be well contained within the private sector. This is significant since it lowers the likelihood of systemic risk to the broader banking system. But there are more signs of softness in the residential housing market with sales and home prices both decelerating in February. Higher inflation and higher interest rates would add pressure to the housing market and the economy and could undermine economic activity. The employment report for the month of March will therefore be an important data point since 70% of the US economy is consumer driven.

Nevertheless, we remain bullish for the longer term because the underlying fundamentals of the equity market remain strong. As fourth quarter earnings season ends, the two main surveys of analysts’ earnings estimates point to a significant, and very positive reassessment of 2026 and 2027 earnings growth. The LSEG IBES consensus earnings estimate for 2026 recently rose $2.83 to $320.46 and the 2027 forecast rose $2.08 to $372.50. The S&P Dow Jones consensus forecast for 2026 jumped $5.16 to $319.59 and the estimate for 2027 rose $7.34 to $373.50. These estimates represent earnings growth rates for the S&P 500 index in excess of 16% year-over-year, or twice the long-term average of 8% year-over-year. 

Given the increases in LSEG IBES earnings estimates and the pull back in equity prices, on March 30, 2026, the S&P 500 index was trading at 19.7 times the IBES 2026 estimate and 16.8 times the 2027 estimate. These were the lowest multiples seen since April 2025. In sum, the risk of another round of inflation is real in the near term, but it also appears to be creating a long-term buying opportunity in US equities. 

*Stock prices as of March 31, 2026

Gail Dudack, Chief Strategist

Click to Download

2025 was an excellent year for stockholders. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 13%, the S&P 500 gained 16%, the Nasdaq Composite inked a gain of 20%, and the Russell 2000 index rose 11.3%. But it was not just about US equities; many foreign markets outperformed the US. Even though the S&P 500 nearly touched 7,000 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 48,000, gold also peaked at $4,500 per ounce before closing the year at $4,326, up 65%. Silver, however, was the star performer, closing at $70.13, up 142% for the year. Bitcoin went on a wild ride climbing above $125,000 in October before closing the year at $87,691.92.

Yet what may be most important about the 2025 equity market was that it was the third consecutive year of double-digit gains in all three averages. The last time all three indices had three or more years of double-digit gains was the five years of double-digit gains from 1995 to 1999. The good news about this comparison is that double-digit gains continued for two more years and later became known as the Dot-com bubble. The bad news is that this bubble ended in early 2000 and was followed by three consecutive years of annual losses.

There were several more examples of double-digit equity gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 had three consecutive years of double-digit gains in 1943-1945 and 1949-1951 (four years for the Dow Jones Industrial Average). These two rallies were followed by a year of negative equity performance in 1953. The Nasdaq Stock Market did not begin operations as the world’s first fully electronic stock market until February 8, 1971, and the more volatile Nasdaq Composite Index had three consecutive years of double-digit gains on its own in 1978-1980, 1991-1993 and in conjunction with the S&P 500 in 2012-2014 and 2019-2021. Each of these periods was also followed by a full year of negative or flat performance for equities. In short, three consecutive years of double-digit gains have a long history of predicting losses in the succeeding year.

This performance history certainly presents a risk for equities in 2026. But when we study these various markets, we believe today’s market is most closely comparable to the 1990 era. There is one obvious similarity. The 1990 era was the dawn of the internet, the current cycle is the dawning of artificial intelligence, and both periods saw the stock market led by a small group of stocks related to these technological advances. But there are also important differences. While today’s market does have excitement about the growth and productivity related to artificial intelligence, it does not demonstrate the mania seen at the end of a bubble. In fact, some investors have become skeptical about the return on investment (ROI) related to artificial intelligence and are now asking for measurable returns in upcoming quarterly earnings reports. This is not symptomatic of a bubble peak. From a technical analysis perspective, sentiment indicators have been displaying more skepticism than optimism in recent weeks. This is the opposite of a mania.

In the 1990s era there were several technical indicators that warned that the equity market was vulnerable. The NYSE advance/decline line peaked in 1997 and suffered three years of breadth divergence before the S&P 500 peaked in early 2000! This meant a few large capitalization stocks drove the indices while the broader market was left behind (and declined) for a long time. So, it is notable that the NYSE advance/decline line made a new high on December 25, 2025, confirming the new highs in the market and indicating that 2025 was a broad-based advance. Speculation and credit expansion define the end of a bubble market, and while margin debt was expanding at the end of 2025, it was not rising at the pace seen in 1999.

Most importantly, in the Dot-com era many of the leading internet-related companies were merely concepts and had no earnings at all, only growth “potential.” This may be the most important difference between a bubble peak and the current market. Many of today’s market leaders are linked to artificial intelligence but are both demonstrating exceptional earnings growth and are the major drivers of S&P earnings. Very simply, today’s market has real companies with real earnings growth. Using S&P’s current estimates, S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 14.3% year-over-year in 2025, which is well above the long-term average of 8.1% year-over-year. And note that this was in sharp contrast to a year that many forecasted to be troubled by tariff-induced stagflation. Neither inflation nor stagnation proved to be accurate, and we expect 2026’s economy and earnings will again be better than anticipated.

Our 2026 Forecasts

We expect good economic activity this year and our estimate for 2026 GDP is 3.4% year-on-year, which is above the long-term average of 3.2%. Our 3.4% growth rate would represent the strongest economic activity since the post-pandemic rebound in 2021. However, the significant difference between the two years is that we expect 2026’s economy will be driven by fiscal policy that encourages business investment and consumer spending versus the fiscal and monetary stimulated growth seen in 2021 which focused on government spending and increasing money supply (both of which proved to be inflationary). In fact, some of the stimulus from the past administration is slowly leaving the system which we expect will be a drag on some parts of the market but will not overwhelm the broader economy.

Based upon our GDP forecast, we are raising our 2026 S&P 500 earnings forecast from $310.50 to $315, which reflects a 16% YOY increase. This is slightly better than the anticipated 14% earnings gain currently seen for 2025. We are also raising our 2027 earnings forecast of $345 to $350 to reflect an 11% YOY gain. Note that all three earnings growth rates are greater than the long-term average of 8.1%, nevertheless, we believe our forecasts could prove too conservative.

At the same time, we expect inflation to fall to 2.2% YOY and productivity to rise due to decreased government regulation and implementation of AI. Inflation is expected to ratchet lower in 2026 supported by the fact that crude oil prices are currently below $60 a barrel and increasing supply should keep prices below $70. This implies that price-to-earnings multiples should remain stable or move higher. The trailing PE multiple of the S&P 500 index has hovered around 26 times for most of the last twelve months and we do not expect this to change. If we apply the current 26 times PE multiple to our earnings forecast of $315, we get an S&P 500 target of 8190, which represents a gain of 18% in 2026. It is worth noting that the trailing PE in 2000 reached 29-30 before the equity market peaked.

In sum, there are many reasons to be bullish about equities in 2026, and solid earnings growth is the strongest factor. But no market is without risks. The Supreme Court is yet to rule on the legality of tariffs, and this has been core to the Trump administration’s economic policy. The rising cost of healthcare is a hardship for many households, and we see no sign that Congress is looking to tackle the problems related to Obamacare. And finally, the job market displayed signs of weakness at the end of the year. Declining employment is the biggest risk factor for the 2026 economy. Nevertheless, this year has the potential to be another great year for economic activity, corporate earnings, and investors.

Gail Dudack, Chief Strategist

Click to Download

The third quarter of the year was another good period for the equity market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5.2%, the benchmark S&P 500 Composite index gained 7.8%, the Nasdaq Composite index increased 11.2% and the broader small capitalization Russell 2000 index generated an impressive 12.0% gain. The SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD – $319.12) was a standout with a 24.4% gain in the quarter. Note that three stocks, Meta Platforms, Inc. (META – $743.38), Alphabet Inc. A (GOOGL – $243.10), and Alphabet Inc. C (GOOG – $243.55), represent more than 28% of this sector’s total weighting. By the end of September, the year-to-date gains in the indices were 9.1% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 13.7% in the S&P 500, 17.3% in the Nasdaq Composite index, and 9.3% in the Russell 2000 index. In short, 2025 has been an excellent year for equity investors.

Shutdowns and Debt Ceilings

However, as we go to print, it appears that Congress may not be able to pass a clean continuing resolution bill (CR) to keep the government open for another seven weeks. This means the US faces a government shutdown on October 1 (the beginning of a new fiscal year). Although a government shutdown is not a good thing, the October 1^st deadline does not create an immediate threat to the equity or fixed income markets.

A federal shutdown halts, or postpones, discretionary government spending; however mandatory payments, including interest payments on US Treasury securities, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid payments are legally required to continue. Normally a continuing resolution bill will also include an increase in the debt limit; but the budget reconciliation law enacted on July 4, 2025 (known as H.R.1 – One Big Beautiful Bill Act) raised the debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion. This was an important inclusion in the July 4^th bill since it will allow the US Treasury to continue to issue debt and pay all its mandatory obligations without fear of reaching the debt ceiling in the near term. Had the debt ceiling not been lifted in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, it could have been breached, and the US Treasury would have had to employ unusual means to pay interest on its debt, if possible. The prospect of a default on US debt would have thrown the fixed income markets (and in turn the equity market) into chaos in the fourth quarter. (Note: debt held by the public was $30.1 trillion and intragovernmental debt was $7.3 trillion, for a total outstanding debt of $37.4 trillion, as of September 3, 2025.)   

the federal reserve and the bls

The long-awaited September Federal Reserve meeting delivered the 25 basis points cut in the fed funds rate as expected. The previous rate cut was 50 basis points in September 2024. History shows that stocks tend to perform well in the six and nine months following a first rate cut, and not surprisingly, equities rallied in anticipation of this event. The Wall Street adage “Don’t Fight the Fed” is based upon historical data that shows that equities perform poorly when the Fed is raising rates but perform well when the Fed is lowering rates.

One reason we expect the Fed will continue to lower interest rates this year is that the labor market may be weaker than previously reported. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently announced that the annual revision to payrolls in the 12 months ending in March 2025 is estimated to be a subtraction of 911,000 jobs. This means payrolls were lower than previously reported and actual job growth may have been 76,000 jobs less than reported for every month from March 2024 to March 2025.

This annual adjustment was far larger than economists anticipated, and it appears to be the largest revision ever recorded. Moreover, it would be the second huge annual revision in a row. Our concern is that job growth might have been, or is, negative on a year-over-year basis. Negative job growth is closely aligned with an economic recession. Unfortunately, the BLS will not confirm this estimate until next year. But we believe the Fed should continue to lower rates or risk being too late once again.

Equally important, in the third quarter the consensus view that tariffs would trigger high inflation and a weak economy finally began to fade and analysts became less bearish. In our opinion, the most important event of the third quarter was second quarter S&P 500 earnings results, which were expected to increase by less than 5% YOY, but actually grew 10.5% YOY. Not only was this a positive surprise, but it means that earnings were growing well above the long-term average of 8.2% YOY.

Equity valuation is high but…

There are many possible hurdles facing the financial markets in the fourth quarter including conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, political division domestically, and sovereign deficits here and in Europe that threaten fiscal stability. However, in October, aside from the FOMC meeting, the most important factor may be the start of third quarter earnings season. Underlying all bull markets are solid fundamentals. The current IBES LSEG consensus earnings forecasts for S&P 500 earnings are $266.67 for 2025 and $304.40 for 2026. This means that the market is trading at 24.9 times this year’s earnings and 21.8 times 2026 earnings. This is rich by most historical measures. Nevertheless, the 2026 S&P 500 earnings yield is 4.6%, and when coupled with the S&P 500’s dividend yield of 1.2%, the combination remains attractive relative to the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.1%.

Moreover, we expect earnings will continue to surprise on the upside due to a stronger economy. What most strategists have overlooked is the stimulative impact of fiscal policy which allows large and small businesses to fully depreciate investments in the current year. Early next year we expect many households will benefit from the reduction of taxes on tips, social security, and overtime, and special deductions on car loan interest and a $6,000 deduction for eligible seniors. In sum, while markets may remain volatile, we expect the bull market will continue.

*Stock, index, and sector prices are as of September 30, 2025

Gail Dudack, Chief Strategist

Click to Download

The market’s performance in the second quarter of the year was surprisingly good with gains of 17.8% in the Nasdaq Composite, 10.6% in the S&P 500, 5.0% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and 8.1% in the Russell 2000 index. However, these percentages do not accurately reflect the volatility seen in equities over the last three months. Volatility – to change rapidly or unpredictably but often used by strategists in place of indicating a weak or bear market — was indeed a very accurate description of the second quarter.

The S&P 500 index reached a high of 6144.15 on February 19, 2025 before falling to a low of 4982.77 on April 8, 2025. This was a 19% decline on a closing basis and more than a 20% decline on an intra-day basis. A 20% decline, or more, typically defines a bear market. The Nasdaq Composite was even more volatile in the same period, dropping nearly 24% between February and April on a closing basis and over 25% on an intra-day basis. Yet by the end of the quarter, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were at new record highs, with gains from their April lows of 24.5% and 33%, respectively. 

Tariff and DOGE Tizzy

The catalyst for April’s swoon in the equity market was tariff policy, or more precisely the breadth and level of tariffs proposed by President Trump. The April 2, 2025, “Liberation Day,” announcement did take us, and the world, by surprise. However, the media failed to understand the purpose of President Trump’s proposed tariff policy or the newly installed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Economists began forecasting high inflation, massive job cuts, and a US recession in the wake of these policies and consumer sentiment soured.

As we noted in April’s quarterly strategy report, we think these recession forecasts totally ignored the objectives of President Trump’s trade policy and DOGE, and the likely positive impact tariffs and DOGE could have on the US economy, the trade balance, GDP, and budget deficit. From a simple perspective, it is not surprising that the stock market fell early in April, but it is also not surprising that equities recovered their losses and more. By the end of the second quarter equity indices were at all-time highs. 

Technical Vigor

The underlying strength of the rally from the April lows has been impressive. Typically, the popular indices will rally to new highs, and it takes several days or several weeks, for volume and breadth indicators to confirm these highs with positive breadth and volume signals. However, 2025 was different. The 25-day up/down volume oscillator rose to and remained in overbought territory for 9 of eleven consecutive days in May and reached a high of 5.10 on May 16. This May reading was the highest since August 18, 2022, when the market was rebounding from the 2022 low. Strong overbought readings are bullish in this indicator since it confirms that robust buying is driving stocks higher. The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line made a string of new highs in June, the latest on June 30, 2025, a sign that the rally from the April lows was solid and broadly based. In short, stocks were indicating that the popular indices would soon be making new highs. On April 2, 2025, the survey from the Association of American Investors showed 61.9% of investors were bearish, a new high for this cycle and a very favorable reading. The 8-week bull/bear is currently neutral but was positive for 17 consecutive weeks from mid-February through June. All in all, these indicators have been confirming an ongoing bull market.

Awaiting Fundamentals

Most economists have relented on their forecasts for a 2025 recession, and economic releases have been good, but somewhat mixed. Total retail & food services sales rose 3.3% YOY in May, down from the 5%+ levels seen in prior months yet showing respectable growth. Housing has been relatively glum for over six months, but many housing surveys are now rebounding from their April lows. May’s employment report showed 139,000 new jobs despite the fact that federal government headcounts declined by 22,000 in the month. Wage growth has been steady at 3.9% YOY and is beating the level of inflation.

Total personal income grew 4.5% YOY in May and real personal disposable income grew 1.7% YOY. This is a small growth rate in real income; nonetheless, it is far better than the negative monthly growth rates seen from January 2021 through December 2022. Inflation benchmarks remain low and stable despite the fact that tariffs are in place. The Federal Reserve’s favorite index, the personal consumption expenditure index, showed prices rising 2.3% YOY in May, up only slightly from 2.2% in April. Headline CPI was 2.38% YOY in May, relatively unchanged from the 2.33% YOY in April. Both inflation indices are down substantially from the

7.25% to 9.1% recorded in June 2022. Energy represents 6.4% of the CPI, and with WTI crude oil currently under $65 a barrel, down from $80 a barrel in January, headline inflation is apt to trend lower in months ahead. 

The underlying foundation of any bull market is earnings growth, and while first quarter earnings results were better than expected, the impact of tariffs is more likely to be defined by results reported in second quarter. Second quarter reporting season will begin in earnest in mid-July; however, earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been creeping higher in recent weeks. This is a good omen. If there is one area of concern it would be equity valuation which remains stretched. The 12-month forward S&P 500 earnings PE is currently 21 times and well above the long-term average of 17.9 times. This is why earnings releases and CEO forecasts will be a defining factor for equities in the second half of the year.

All in all, we have been expecting the stock market to rally to new highs in the second half of the year. Part of our optimism is based upon the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill which we expect will boost GDP as a result of retroactive tax cuts and corporate investment deductions. If this is correct, corporate earnings should also beat expectations and support a solid equity performance in the second half of 2025.

Gail Dudack

Click to Download

In our April 2024 Quarterly Market Strategy Report we wrote “if the stock market is forming a bubble, and we think it is, it is still in the early stages. PE multiples are exceedingly high at 24.2 times trailing 12-months and 21 times forward 12-months earnings. Yet during the 1997-2000 bubble, the financial crisis of 2008, and even the post-COVID-19 peak, the trailing 12-month PE reached 26 to 30 times.”

We mention these comments from a year ago because the world seems to have changed so much in the two months since Donald J. Trump became president. But given these comments from a year ago, Trump’s tariff threats and the uncertainty they created may have been the trigger the market required for an inevitable correction. In short, a pullback in the market was overdue, and the uncertainties surrounding tariffs were the catalyst. As we expected, the equity market continued to rise last year and by February 19, 2025, the S&P 500 was trading at 26 times trailing earnings and 22 times forward 12-month earnings. This forward PE of 22 in February was well in excess of the long-term average of 14.3 times. In short, from a valuation perspective, it is not a surprise that the equity market had one of its weakest first quarter performances in years.

Testing the Lows

At the March 13, 2025 closing lows, the peak-to-trough declines in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq Composite index, and the Russell 2000 index were 10.1%, 9.3%, 14.2%, and 18.4%, respectively. This means that the S&P 500’s selloff was just short of a 10% drop that defines a correction, and the Russell 2000 declined just short of the 20% drop that defines a bear market. Yet, many of the technology stocks that had been the drivers of the 2024 bull market fared much worse. For example, Nvidia Corp. (NVDA – $108.38) had a two-month peak-to-trough decline of more than 28%. In other words, depending upon the index or stock you choose, equities have been in full-blown correction or bear market in the last two months. By the end of March, the declines of 4.6% in the S&P 500 and 10.4% in the Nasdaq Composite index in the first quarter were the worst since 2022.

As the April 2 deadline for President Trump’s tariffs approaches, the equity market is retesting its March lows. From a technical perspective, a retest of the lows is a normal scenario and part of a classic bottoming process. There are several factors that suggest a bottoming process is at hand. The S&P 500 seems to be stabilizing after it experienced a 10% correction, the Nasdaq Composite index rebounded off its 2022-2025 uptrend line and the Russell 2000 index bounced off its pivotal 2000 resistance/support level. These were all important levels of support. Rebounds from these levels make it likely that the worst of the “fear of tariffs” may be over. In addition, the American Association of Individual Investors’ survey showed that bullish investor sentiment tumbled to 19.4% and bearishness jumped to 60.6% at the end of February. A combination of 20% or less bullishness and 50% or more bearishness in this indicator is rare and has been a positive sign for the market. The 8-week AAII bull/bear index is as low as it was in November 2022, just after the S&P 500’s 25% decline to 3577.03 on October 12. In short, this high level of pessimism is associated with major market lows.

The Impact of Tariffs

What history has shown is that financial markets can deal with good news or bad news, but it does not do well in a time of uncertainty. With the 25% tariff on foreign car imports now permanent and the April 2 deadline for reciprocal tariffs on the horizon, the fog of uncertainty regarding tariffs should soon begin to dissipate. That is good news.

Most economists are describing tariffs as a tax on consumers, but we disagree. Taxes of all kinds are unavoidable, and they are mandatory. Tariffs make imports more expensive, but consumers usually have choices in terms of what they buy or do not buy. In the case of vehicles, American-made vehicles will be a more attractive alternative in the future, and we expect to see consumers buying more American-made and less foreign-made vehicles. The same is true of liquor, wine, and many other products. More importantly, despite what many economists are saying, history has shown that tariffs are rarely passed on directly to the US consumer. In the past when tariffs have been levied, exporters often choose to lower prices, or in the case of China, a country can subsidize exports to the US. Domestic retailers can choose to absorb part, or all of the tariff increase in order to keep prices stable for consumers. This means that inflation may be far less than expected, but many companies that import products or parts from offshore will face margin pressure. From this perspective, the biggest negative from tariffs could be lower margins and lower corporate earnings.

If tariffs persist for a long while (and there is no certainty that they will), we expect consumer behavior will change; consequently, in the aftermath of tariffs, some companies will be winners and some will be losers. But keep in mind that the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs will be excluding a variety of necessities such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, and as a result, the overall impact will be less broad based than currently forecasted.

It is also important to remember that the US is the largest consumer in the world with a 2024 trade deficit in goods and services of $918.4 billion. The deficit in goods alone reached a record $1.2 trillion in 2024. Our largest trade deficit was with Mexico, and it hit a record $171.8 billion last year. The US had record imports from 50 countries in 2024, led by Mexico ($505.9 billion), Germany ($160.4 billion), and Japan ($148.2 billion). This trilogy of imports may explain Trump’s focus on imported vehicles. Conversely, the 2024 petroleum surplus was the highest on record at $44.9 billion.

Overall, these statistics explain why the threat of tariffs is a powerful negotiating tool for the US. And despite the current anguish about tariffs, if the tariffs become permanent (which we doubt), the negative impact on our trading partners is apt to be far greater than it will be domestically. Therefore, in our view, our trading partners are more likely to sit at the negotiating table and look for a compromise, than to start a true tariff war.

Sentiment Bias

In this highly politicized environment, it is worth discussing the bias currently found in consumer sentiment indices. The recent University of Michigan consumer sentiment for March fell 7 points to 57. The current conditions component eased 1.9 points to 63.8, and the index of consumer expectations plummeted 11.4 points to 52.6. Nevertheless, these numbers appear to be highly skewed by political party affiliation. Party affiliation data has a one-month lag, but the index of consumer expectations for Democrats fell 12.6 points to 36.8 in February while Independent expectations dropped 6.4 points to 59.1. Conversely, the Republican expectations index rose 2.3 points to 106.6. This data suggests that consumer sentiment data is skewed politically and has a negative bias.

The University of Michigan survey also reveals that optimism, or pessimism may be highly correlated to the news source one chooses to follow. When respondents were asked “during the last few months, have you heard of any favorable or unfavorable changes in business conditions?” the 3-month moving average of Democrats fell 40 points to 29 while the same index rose 13 points to 101 for Republicans. Independent voters had a 9-point decline to 53. This bias in sentiment indices suggests that much like presidential election polls, consumer sentiment indicators may not be a good forecaster of outcomes.

All in all, retail sales may be a better predictor of the health and sentiment of the consumer than sentiment indices. Many indicators point to the market being in a bottoming formation in March and that implies an opportunity for investors. However, individual companies may be helped or hurt by tariffs. This means keeping portfolios diversified and avoiding companies that could face potential margin compression in the year ahead.  

*Stock prices are as of March 31, 2025 close.

Gail Dudack, Chief Strategist

Click to Download

January 2025

Equities were more volatile in the second half of December after Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cut the fed funds rate 25-basis points, which was expected, but lowered the number of expected 2025 rate cuts to two, which was a negative surprise. In response, the S&P 500 Composite fell nearly 3%, the worst daily performance in months. In our view, this extreme reaction to less Fed stimulus is a sign that speculators, which had been boosting share prices in 2024, were becoming a bit more cautious.

Nonetheless, it was a good year for stockholders. In 2024, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 12.9%, the S&P 500 gained 23.3%, the Nasdaq Composite inked a gain of 28.6%, and the Russell 2000 index rose 10.0%.

What made 2024 significant is that it was the second time in a row in which all three popular indices closed with double-digit gains for the year. This is a fairly rare occurrence. There have been times when all three indices had an additional third year of double-digit gains, such as in: 1943-1945, 1949-1951, and 1995-1999. The bad news is that each of these occurrences was followed by a significant bear market. The most memorable advance was seen in 1995-1999 (five years of double-digit gains), and it was followed by a major bear market that resulted in substantial annual losses for three consecutive years.

Double-digit gains for only two years in a row are more common and have been seen in: 1954-1955, 1975-1976, 1982-1983, 1988-1989, 2009-2010, and 2016-2017. Still, each of these occurrences was followed by negative or negligible annual gains in the subsequent year. In short, two years of double-digit gains does not tell us much about 2025. It could be a weak year or another year of double-digit gains, but it does suggest that 2025 could be an important and pivotal time for investors.

January tends to be an important month for equities and the Wall Street adage “As goes January, so goes the year” could have special meaning this year. The reason January tends to be significant is that liquidity is strong early in the year due to IRA and pension funding. Therefore, a weak January performance is ominous and suggests investors are avoiding equities.

At the end of 2024 Change appeared Everywhere

Political change appeared everywhere in 2024, particularly as the year ended. On December 8, 2024, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria fled to Russia after six decades of his family’s autocratic rule. This overthrow could be a major turning point in the Middle East, and it was an obvious blow to both Russia and Iran who backed Bashar al-Assad. According to Reuters, Senior US diplomats met with Syria’s de-facto new ruler Ahmed al-Sharaa, and after a “good” and “very productive” meeting about Syria’s political transition, the US removed an existing bounty on his head. At this early stage the transformation in Syria appears to hold great promise for positive, and potentially peaceful change in the Middle East.

Change is also impacting America’s allies. French President Emmanuel Macron is under extreme political pressure to rein in France’s fiscal deficit. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is not expected to survive a February 2025 vote. The UK had a series of Conservative Party Prime Ministers after the pandemic, including Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak, before a Labor Party upset brought the current Prime Minister Keir Starmer to power. The Conservative Party’s newly elected leader is Kemi Badenoch, a right-wing politician who opposes identity politics and state spending. She is also the Tories’ first black female leader. And in Canada, Justin Trudeau, is expected to face a formal motion of no-confidence in the House of Commons early this year.

Change is what also re-elected Donald J. Trump in November and won not only a majority in both the House and the Senate but a majority of all voters. This election was greeted with both jubilation and trepidation, domestically and abroad. Trump, the disruptor, has cobbled together a Cabinet full of potential disruptors who promise to bring transparency and common-sense change to the federal government. However, change will not be easy to achieve in Washington DC or be pleasant for everyone, so we would expect some pushback.

The appointment of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to head the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is a unique experiment. In our opinion, the effort to bring efficiency to government may be Elon Musk’s greatest challenge to date. Nevertheless, the result of the November presidential election is a renewed focus on growing jobs in America, removing government regulations that hinder corporate growth, and controlling budget deficits. Each of these will require profound change and is what could make this year a time of both promise and potential turbulence.

Our 2025 Forecasts

Our assumptions for 2025 include GDP growth of 3.2% YOY, a 15% increase in SPX earnings, a maximum of two fed funds rate cuts, Treasury bill yields falling to 4.1%, Treasury bond yields at 4.3%, and inflation remaining sticky at 2.75. This combination results in our valuation model generating a predicted PE of 17.3 times and an SPX target of 5372 based on our 2026 earnings estimate. In short, the stock market is 40% overvalued by this benchmark. However, we must point out that at the end of 2021, 2022, and 2023 the market was also 30% or more overvalued by this benchmark, yet the market continued to climb higher. Liquidity and momentum have been overriding valuation in recent years and stock prices have been boosted by stocks benefiting or expected to benefit from the adoption of artificial intelligence. Moreover, household liquidity remains favorable and offsetting the risk in valuation are the fact that the US economy remains the global engine of growth, US is the home of many, or most of the companies benefiting from the future of artificial intelligence, and global liquidity remains high due to the sizeable global monetary and fiscal stimulus seen in the post-Covid era.

Conclusion

All in all, economic activity should remain relatively healthy in 2025 due in large part to the support given to the energy sector which will help to lower energy prices. This in turn lowers expenses for the household sector and improves margins in the corporate sector — a combination that potentially increases both consumption and corporate earnings. The incoming business-friendly administration is also expected to improve the growth path for the small business sector which is the source of over 45% of all jobs in America. Prior to his inauguration, President-elect Trump has already proven that he can get foreign companies to invest in the US, and that too, increases jobs which improves household income.

Overall, we expect top line revenue growth next year will lead to at least a 15% increase in S&P earnings and this should support further gains in the equity market. However, much of this was priced in during the November rally, and we would not be surprised if stock prices were flat to lower in the first quarter of 2025.

Gail Dudack, Chief Strategist

Click to Download

The third quarter of 2024 included the long-anticipated September Federal Reserve meeting, and the first fed funds rate cut in four years. What was equally remarkable, was the dramatic shift in equity leadership, away from the popular large capitalization companies linked to growth from artificial intelligence (AI) to a much broader range of equities. This was a positive change for most investors and as a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 8.2% in the quarter, as compared to the Nasdaq Composite index with a 2.6% increase. The benchmark S&P 500 Composite index rose 5.5%, while the broader Russell 2000 index was the biggest winner with an 8.9% gain. Perhaps the most surprising point in terms of the quarter’s performance was the spectacular 23% increase in the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB – $124.56), a homebuilding exchange-traded fund. Clearly, this jump was in anticipation of the Fed’s rate cut and the expectation that a shift to easy monetary policy would reignite the housing market.

50 Basis points

The 50-basis-point cut by the Federal Reserve was double the level expected only a month earlier. However, a larger cut may have been the Fed’s insurance policy to reduce the risk of the US economy experiencing a recession or a hard landing. Equally important, at the end of September the Chinese government announced its biggest stimulus package since the pandemic. This package included more than $326 billion in a variety of measures such as lower central bank rates, lower mortgage rates, minimum down payments on real estate transactions, and a 50 basis point decline in the RRR (reserve requirement ratio). The People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said further easing is likely to be in the pipeline, and another reduction in bank reserve requirements should be expected before year-end. These additional actions may be necessary to reverse the slump in Chinese consumer consumption, a shaky property market and growing deflationary pressures.

Asian analysts believe it will take fiscal as well as monetary measures to revive China’s economy, however China’s move was greeted favorably and triggered equity and commodity rallies around the world.

Furthermore, this stimulus trend did not start in September. Many central banks — including those in Europe, England, Canada and some emerging markets — were already cutting their benchmark interest rates before the Fed pivoted in mid-September. This policy shift by a number of central banks to lower key interest rates increases liquidity in the global financial system and should be a positive force for equities. The Wall Street adage “don’t fight the Fed” has been good advice historically.

While lowering the fed funds rate will support the US economy and a sluggish residential sector, it will also help the federal deficit. At present, 21% of outstanding marketable Treasury debt is held in short-term bills. September’s rate cut and the cuts expected to follow, will lower the government’s net interest expense in the months ahead. This factor should not go unnoticed since according to current White House data, in fiscal 2023, the government’s net interest expense was 9.5% of total spending, and in fiscal 2024 it is expected to exceed the 9.9% of total outlays spent for defense and international expense.

Rate cut history

Statistics on how the stock market reacts to an initial fed funds rate cut are quite mixed. History shows that the first rate cut typically occurs when the economy is already in a recession. But note, this fact may not have been known at the time since recessions – two consecutive quarters of negative GDP — are only identified with a six-month lag. The one easing cycle that took place prior to a recession was in June 1989, however, this cut was also followed by a recession, but not until July 1990. Moreover, inflation of 6% or greater is typically followed by a recession, even though it may take years to materialize. In short, there are reasons to be cautious, yet the current Covid/post-Covid cycle has been unusual in many ways and the stock market clearly feels we are headed for a soft landing or no recession at all. And perhaps this is true and it will be different this time. But are not convinced that a normal economic cycle of expansion/recession has been eliminated entirely. It may simply have been postponed for another time.

Equity valuation is high and an election nears

Global monetary policy currently supports equities, but what does not support equities is valuation. The S&P 500 trailing 4-quarter operating multiple is now 25.2 times earnings, and the 12-month forward PE multiple is 21.5 times. By all measures, the US equity market remains richly valued and is at levels seen only during the 1997-2000 bubble, the financial crisis of 2008, or the post-COVID-19 earnings slump. Still, it may be too soon to worry about current valuation. Even in these prior cycles, the 12-month trailing PE multiple reached a range of 27 to 31 before equity prices peaked. What is more, the current influx of liquidity has led some analysts to believe the US equity market could soon experience a “melt-up” in prices. In short, if the market is forming a bubble, or about to “melt up” valuation will not matter, at least in the short run.

2024 is a presidential election year, and while these years are rarely the best-performing years in the four-year cycle, there is a strong tendency for equity prices to rise at year end. November and December tend to be good months for stocks in most years, but they tend to be the best-performing months in a presidential election year. 

In the months ahead, the unemployment rate may become more important to equity investors than Fed policy, inflation, or earnings. If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the odds of a recession will increase substantially, and the equity rally could come to an end. Conversely, if the unemployment rate remains stable to lower, it would suggest a soft landing has indeed been achieved. This would be a good omen for both future corporate earnings and equity performance.

*Stock prices are as of September 30, 2024

Gail Dudack, Chief Strategist

Click to Download

The stock market’s performance in the first half of the year was strikingly similar to the action seen in the first half of 2023. The benchmark S&P 500 index rose 14.5%, a bit less than the 15.9% gain in the first half of 2023, but still a healthy performance. And once again, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index was the best-acting index, even if this year’s 18% gain in the first six months was less than the 32% increase seen last year. And, as in 2023, the stellar performances of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices were tied to big gains in a relatively small group of large capitalization stocks, particularly those linked to artificial intelligence.

In comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, despite hitting an all-time high on May 17, 2024, has delivered a mere 3.8% rise year-to-date, and the much broader Russell 2000 index was virtually unchanged, up 1% at the end of June. At mid-year, the Russell 2000 index is trading more than 16% below its November 2021 peak, in stark contrast to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices which produced a string of record highs in June. It remains a market of haves and have-nots.

The Concentration Deepens

Large capitalization stocks kept getting bigger in 2024 and by the last week of June, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN – $193.25) became the fifth US company to exceed the $2 trillion valuation mark. It thereby joined the rarified air enjoyed by Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG – $183.42) and Class A (GOOGL – $182.15) valued at $2.26 trillion and $2.258 trillion, respectively, Nvidia Corp. (NVDA – $123.54) valued at $3.04 trillion, Apple Inc. (AAPL – $210.62) valued at $3.23 trillion, and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT – $446.95) valued at $3.32 trillion.

These five stocks currently represent more than 35% of the S&P 500 index. This is remarkable since it was less than a year ago when Bloomberg reported that the top ten largest stocks in the S&P 500 represented a then record 32% of the S&P index. As the concentration of value in a small number of stocks increases, it makes it more difficult to outperform, or even perform in line with, the S&P 500 index unless your portfolio was overweighted in these companies.

More importantly, this market concentration is reminiscent of the Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s and the Dot-com stocks of the late 1990s. Both of these bubble markets, led by a small group of growth stocks, eventually ended in tears. Note also that the peaks of these two bubbles (January 11, 1973, and March 24, 2000) were 27 years apart and we are now more than 24 years from the 2000 top. This time spread may be significant since it suggests a new generation of investors has entered the financial markets with new investment ideas and goals. The popularity of Bitcoin and meme stocks are two examples of this. And this new generation is experiencing a historic transfer of wealth. A New York Times article⃰ recently discussed “the greatest wealth transfer in history” indicating that over the next 20 years $84 trillion in assets is set to change hands from Baby Boomers to the next generation. It is a trend worth monitoring.

For all these reasons, markets are apt to remain volatile. But over the longer term, it is wise to be thoughtful in one’s investment decisions and maintain a diversified portfolio focusing on stocks with predictable future earnings streams.

Recession on Hold

Meanwhile, the US economy continues to outperform expectations in 2024 and the long-awaited recession is yet to materialize. The labor market has stayed resilient and so has the consumer, even though consumer sentiment remains at recessionary levels. Small business sentiment continues to show concerns about future revenues and cost of goods, but sentiment is up from previous lows. Housing is showing signs of weakness due to rising home prices and substantially higher mortgage rates which is making housing less affordable for many. Still, GDP for the first quarter was recently revised upward from 1.3% to 1.4%.

The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation benchmark, the personal consumption expenditure deflator (PCE) ticked down from 2.7% year-on-year in May to 2.6% in June; while core PCE, which strips away food and energy prices and is the key metric on the Fed’s radar, fell from 2.8% year-on-year to 2.6%. This was good news for economists since it opens the door for a possible rate cut in the month of September. The one caveat for inflation would be if crude oil prices continue to rise and this increases the cost of gasoline, heating oil, and private and public transportation.

We do not believe that the economic cycle of expansion and recession has been eliminated completely, but it is clear that fiscal stimulus, not just through spending packages passed by Congress, but federal spending done through government agencies, has boosted the economy. And while spending is good for the economy it has also pushed the US debt-to-GDP ratio to 123% as of September 2023. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the 2024 deficit will be $2 trillion, or 7% of GDP, which is nearly double the 50-year average of 3.7% of GDP. Unfortunately, this uncontrolled deficit spending could mean that the next recession will be worse than it would have been otherwise.

EARNINGS and valuation

Corporate earnings, reported as earnings per share, have been mixed but are generally better than most forecasts. Much of this is due to efficiency gains but some of this is due to the record level of stock repurchases. According to S&P Dow Jones, a total of $236.8 billion was spent on stock buybacks in the first quarter, up from $219.1 billion in the previous quarter. This was also up 10% from $215.5 billion in the first quarter of last year. The largest 20 companies in the index were responsible for 50.9% of the buybacks in the first quarter, slightly down from last quarter’s rate of 54%, but still above the historical average of 47.5%.

The companies with the biggest buyback campaigns in the first quarter were Apple, Meta Platforms Inc. (META – $504.22), Alphabet, Nvidia, and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC – $59.39), in that order. The impact of stock buybacks is two-fold. It lowers the number of shares outstanding, which will increase “earnings per share” without any change in revenues. And it also decreases the supply of stock, which theoretically increases the stock price.

The S&P 500 trailing 4-quarter operating multiple is now 24.9 times which is well above all long- and short-term averages. The 12-month forward PE multiple is 21.1 times which is substantially above its long-term average of 15 times or its 10-year average of 19.5 times. When 21.1 is added to inflation of 3.3%, it sums to 24.4, which is also above the top of the normal valuation range of 14.8 to 23.8. By all measures, the equity market is at valuations seen only during the 1997-2000 bubble, the financial crisis of 2008, or the post-COVID-19 earnings slump. This is a reason to be watchful particularly with uncertain elections ahead in the UK, France, and the US.

* The New York Times, “The Greatest Wealth Transfer in History Is Here, With Familiar (Rich) Winners,” May 14, 2023.

Stock prices are as of June 30, 2024

Gail Dudack, Chief Strategist

Click to Download

Comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the December 13, 2023 Fed meeting triggered a strong yearend rally that led to all four of the major US equity indices closing the year with impressive double-digit gains. The gist of Powell’s December comments was that while there would be no immediate change in Fed monetary policy, rate cuts could be coming in 2024.

Two subsequent FOMC meetings that ended on January 31, 2024 and March 20, 2024 followed a strikingly similar pattern, that is, no change in policy, a hint of rate cuts this year, followed by a strong stock market rally. Note that this sequence of events suggests that the equity market has been discounting the possibility of 2024 interest rate cuts multiple times. And since forecasts for 2024 corporate earnings have declined slightly in the interim, this means the price-earnings ratio for equities has been climbing. It is this rise in the price-earnings ratio that has led many to feel the market is or is becoming overvalued and it is also the reason the fear of an equity bubble is rising. To date, the 2024 equity market has been a momentum-driven market and not a value-driven market.

However, if the stock market is forming a bubble, and we think it is, it is in the early stages. PE multiples are exceedingly high at 24.2 times trailing 12-months and 21 times forward 12-months. Yet during the 1997-2000 bubble, the financial crisis of 2008, and even the post-COVID-19 peak, the trailing 12-month PE reached 26 to 30 times earnings.

The financial media has heralded the S&P 500’s 10.2% gain in the first three months of the year as the best first-quarter performance in five years, but this is a bit disingenuous since this only applied to the S&P 500 index and not to other indices. The Nasdaq Composite index had a solid gain of 9.1% in the first quarter, but this was less than the 16.8% gain seen in 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5.6% in the quarter which was the best first quarter since the 2021 gain of 7.8%. The Russell 2000 index rose 4.8%, the best first quarter since the 12.4% also seen in 2021. In short, it was a good first quarter performance for most stocks and most portfolios, but not the best first quarter in five years.

Cryptocurrency

Still, the first quarter of 2024 may go down in history, not as the best equity performance in five years, but as the first time ETFs were introduced on spot bitcoin. After more than a decade of rejecting spot bitcoin ETFs in hopes of protecting investors from market manipulation, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was forced to approve them in January after an appeals court ruled that the SEC had not sufficiently detailed its reasoning for rejecting the products. The SEC approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs in late January. And according to LSEG data, net flows into the ten largest spot bitcoin funds reached a stunning $2.2 billion in the week ended March 1. The cryptocurrency has soared nearly 162% since October, jumped 44% in February alone, reached a high of $73,157.00 on March 13, 2024, and generated a year-to-date gain of nearly 67%.

This surge in demand for Bitcoin (BTC= – $70,841.00) may be representative of today’s financial markets for several reasons. Bitcoin has the backing of a new generation of investors, ETFs are a form of leverage that attracts a larger audience of buyers, and there are no underlying fundamentals. Bitcoin has no assets, earnings, or revenues to analyze, yet it is surging based upon the belief that it will go higher. Likewise, momentum, liquidity, and leverage drive the typical equity bubble, not fundamentals. Bitcoin and the equity market are also similar in that they are both driven by an underlying expectation of lower inflation and lower interest rates. In sum, inflation and interest rates are the Achilles heel to both markets.

Leadership changes

Much like the popularity of spot bitcoin ETFs, many investors are using ETFs to participate in the equity market rather than buying individual stocks. And the performance of various ETFs reveals an interesting change in leadership in 2024.

In 2023 the best performing ETFs were linked to S&P sectors and industries related to technology, homebuilders, communication services, consumer discretionary, and semiconductors.

This year’s best performers have been found in oil, homebuilders, energy, communication services, financials, and industrials.

What we find most interesting about the shift in the first quarter of the year is the outperformance of oil and energy, which suggests there could be a risk of higher energy pricing and higher inflation. The good news about this shift is the outperformance of the financial sector implies a better economic environment in 2024.

Pivot or No Pivot

While the stock market is rallying in anticipation of a Fed pivot and lower interest rates, we believe a pivot is unnecessary. What many overlook is the fact that monetary policy is already very accommodative despite the rise in interest rates. Government yield curves may be inverted — and this has been the longest inversion without a recession in history – but as the Federal Reserve made a succession of interest rate hikes, underlying fiscal and monetary policies have remained surprisingly stimulative.

For example, the Federal Reserve has been shrinking its balance sheet down to $7.7 trillion as of March 20, 2024 from a peak of $9.0 trillion in April 2022. Yet this $7.7 trillion remains well above the $4 trillion seen in normal times before the pandemic. In short, the Fed’s balance sheet continues to provide considerable liquidity to the economy. Not surprisingly, this means there is plenty of liquidity in the banking system including a near-record level of total bank assets of $23.2 trillion and commercial bank deposits of $17.5 trillion (as of mid-March). These are down only modestly from the record $18.2 trillion seen in April 2022. In other words, government spending and a large Fed balance sheet have been providing liquidity and offsetting both the Fed’s interest rate hikes and the inversion of the yield curve. In our view, if the Fed should cut interest rates, we hope it is accompanied by substantial quantitative tightening. If not, it could open the door for another round of higher inflation.

*Stock prices are as of March 28, 2024 close

Click to Download