DJIA: 44,651

Tariffs… who saw those coming, again. Judging by the Market’s reaction Monday, few. Most had expected something more conciliatory. And what about the idea that it’s the market that makes the news, and in good markets like this one bad news is ignored. Perhaps in its way the market did make the news. It is a good market, but good to the point of having become a bit stretched to the upside. Couple that with tariff news that surprised – we give you Monday. Good markets do make the news – new highs in the A/Ds, the best 12-month new highs since last October, and a spike in stocks above the 200-day say it’s good. Add to that a Golden Cross in the S&P itself, the 50-day above the 200-day average.  While not always helpful for individual stocks, it has led to higher prices in the S&P 9 to 12 months later.

Monday may have proven a one-of. The 90-day pause on tariffs ended Tuesday with the announcement of tariffs of 50% on Copper and 200% on Pharmaceuticals. Markets yawned, even at the assertion there would be no further extension after the August 1 deadline.  Tariffs will be worse than expected at the start of the year, but markets seem skeptical there won’t be the usual backtracking. The equity-only-put-call ratio is back to levels seen around the February peak, meaning there is even some risk in terms of complacency. Meanwhile, the latest news did affect the sectors at risk, perhaps most noticeably Copper. An important commodity in many industries, Copper is now at an all-time high. A not so rare earth acting like one.

The big bad bill as some have called it, is it a shot in the arm or a shot in the foot? No bill would have meant the largest tax hike in history, and the stimulus part seems obvious. Certainly for now the market sees it as the former, and that’s what counts. Like Musk, however, one has to wonder how the deficits entailed will not prove inflationary. Time will tell, and at least for now that’s the key – there’s time. Meanwhile, part of the bill also involves considerable funding for ICE. Rounding up illegals also means rounding up a not so insignificant part of the labor force. It used to be said that inflation was always about wage inflation. Again, time will tell. Meanwhile, after having been much less of a worry, Bonds again are looking a little less benign.

Nvidia (NVDA – 164) hits the big $4T, very impressive. More impressive in a way Nvidia is now 7.5% of the S&P.  Throw in the rest of the MAG 7, you’re probably up to 40%. Wonder why they say the market is concentrated? To that we say deal with it, to a degree it is always that way – it’s called having leadership. There actually was a time when the concentration wasn’t in Tech but in Energy, if you can believe it. Energy now has a weighting of less than half that of Nvidia alone. Still there’s little question that the position of Nvidia and the rest of Tech has had an impact. There was a time when to participate in the stock market, you simply bought the S&P. Doing so now means you are buying a diversified group of Tech stocks, and some others. Then, too, for now it is Tech’s world.

The above notwithstanding, a not so techy Walmart (WMT – 95) looks just fine. And then there are the myriad of Financials from J.P. Morgan (JPM- 288) to the Regional Banks. Indeed, that’s the technically endearing quality of this market – most stocks act well, or at least well enough. When most days most stocks go up, good things happen. Just beware of the bad up days – up in the averages with poor or negative A/Ds.  Getting back to the news, the hits just keep coming. Good markets ignore bad news and all that, but the degree to which they do so is an indicator itself. It’s not always easy to recognize or appreciate, but when markets don’t react to negative news, there’s a message.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA 44,484

Change partners… and dance. Tuesday’s market certainly seemed to take heed of that Fred Astaire advice. It’s not that it was a bad day all together, A/Ds were nicely positive, it was a different day. It was a “sell your winners day,” likely an end of the quarter phenomenon rather than a durable change. And stocks like the Semis on average are up some 50% from their April low, deserving of a rest. Three important cyclical sectors made new highs last Friday – Technology, Financials and Industrials. This sort of leadership invariably leads to higher prices. However, nothing goes straight up, nor do they go from new highs to straight down.

Pity the poor fundamental analyst. Tariffs, inflation, deficits, war and pestilence, it’s hard to be bullish. Even the likes of Jamie Dimon and Paul Tudor Jones are worried, yet the market moves higher.  As for the economy, an economically sensitive stock like Parker Hannifin (PH – 712) broke out just the other day. The market’s driver as always is money. When we all wish we had more money to invest but we don’t, when the money is in, by definition that’s the top. Cash in money market funds is a guide, but a poor one. We have long noticed that when markets want to go up the money is always there, and all the sideline cash in the world doesn’t help when markets want to go down. The best guide to investable cash and whether it’s being put to work are those advance/decline numbers, stocks up and stocks down each day. It takes money to push most stocks up most days. So far so good.

Precious metals have been stellar performers all year. For Silver the best may be yet to come, at least it’s best month. While Silver’s July win rate is a seemingly not so spectacular 64%, up July’s have tended to be more up than down July’s down. SIL (49) & SILJ (15) are among the relevant ETFs.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA: 43,387

War is Hell… but good for the market? It depends on the market. So far so good for this market, and it was good for the market when Ukraine was invaded back in 2022.   After an initial downdraft, the market ended much higher the very day of the invasion. The two experiences, however, could not be more different, technically speaking. Back then the S&P already had dropped some 8% in anticipation of the well-advertised event. The weakness seemed to discount the invasion, and that proved so.   This time, the market was only a couple of percent below its all-time high. While markets were hardly unaware, markets were not weak in anticipation. Though not a complete surprise, the news was not discounted in terms of price. So, how is it that the two events so far have produced the same outcome? Could be it’s the market that makes the news.

When we said it depends on the market, this is what we meant. Technically good markets simply have good outcomes. We wouldn’t say there’s no bad news in even good markets, but much of the bad news gets ignored. Similarly, in bad or declining markets, have you ever noticed the news seems to follow price? There’s plenty of bad news, and often news that might have been otherwise ignored. In the scheme of things, the problem that remains is not one of war and peace, rather the problem that has plagued the market all along – uncertainty. An Iran – Israel peace almost seems an oxymoron. Hope springs eternal, but you know what they say about hope as an investment tactic. The far better guide is the technical backdrop, particularly those Advance/Decline numbers. When most days, most stocks go up, good things usually happen.

While the winners in all this are many and the losers few, there are some losers.  Most obvious, the good news has been bad news for Oil.  While we have no idea where Oil itself may go, oil stocks seem attractive on this weakness. To some extent the stocks were used as a hedge, take it from us, hence the reason for weakness. But with a market cap of only some 3% of the S&P there can’t be many real sellers left.  More importantly, the stocks have made lows. Components of the Energy sector ETF (XLE – 86) have cycled from 5% below their 50-day to more than 90% above. This kind of momentum shift typically proves important. Gold also could be in for a little hedge-end selling. Here the trend is simply so strong it should be temporary. Less clear are Aerospace/Defense stocks which also could see a temporary stall.  That said, an outbreak of peace won’t stop defense spending. The recent focus on European Defense shares misses the point that 70-80% of the spend there goes to US companies.

When it comes to Aerospace/Defense stocks, less familiar names like KTOS (41), AVAV (272) and HWM (177) have better charts than the more familiar Lockheed Martin’s (458). Yet the relevant ETFs, XAR (207) and ITA (184), are indistinguishable. Also interesting here, and perhaps even more timely, are the Cyber Security stocks. The ETFs here, CIBR (75) and HACK (86), are similarly indistinguishable, understandable as their top holdings are pretty much the same.  Meanwhile, if you’re looking for the next Microsoft (MSFT – 497), it could well be Microsoft. Other good charts among what we have called retro stocks — Oracle (ORCL – 213), IBM (292) and Dell (126), not to forget GE (251), the Industrial or Defense stock, you get to decide.

The many good charts alluded to above paint an attractive picture for the market as a whole. Still, they’re pretty much visiting in what is Tech’s world.  The S&P Technology sector and the NASDAQ 100 closed at new highs. While the strength has been obvious, this follows significant pullbacks. Specifically, the NASDAQ 100 cycled from a nine-month low to a one-year high, each time the index was then higher a year later, according to SentimenTrader.com.  The obvious cautionary note applies, studies like this, mean up but not straight up. Relevant ETFs are SMH (277) for the Semis, and IGV (109) for Software. You might also consider MTUM (237), Tech heavy but more diversified. It includes JP Morgan (JPM – 289) a Tech chart under the guise of a bank.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA: 42,172

The Middle East… making tariffs look good. Imagine where the market might be in a world without a crisis. Imagine, because it’s not reality – there’s always something. However, were we to just suppose, the market itself seems in a happy place. That April correction of some 15% is history, and the recovery is itself remarkable. The major averages already have recovered to within 5% of their highs. Historically prices moved higher in the following 3 to 6 months, and with little meaningful drawdown. Sure, the Geopolitical backdrop, World War III or is it IV, could disrupt things, but likely to a much lesser degree than if the technical background was less healthy.

The problems in the Middle East haven’t gone unnoticed by the Oil stocks. The fact is the stocks have been acting better for some time – the energy ETFs are up more than 15% from their April lows. While that’s not altogether special, considering the lack of good news here it becomes a bit more impressive. Strength in the Oil stocks always gets our attention for a somewhat unique and important feature — no one owns them. With a market cap of only about 3% of the S&P, a strong breeze could rally them.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA: 42,967

BUY in May… and go away? Like most things, it depends. May was a great month, up more than 5% in the S&P. There are many 5% months, some with follow-through others without. The key here is what led up to May that changes the whole dynamic. Following three consecutive down months, as was the case here, a 5% up month has an extremely high win rate over the following 12 months. Of course, probabilities are not guarantees, and a higher market in 12 months doesn’t rule out a lower market in six months. In other words, it’s no time to be complacent, especially when many seem so. For sure the background is positive, but you can’t forget about the A/Ds and the number of stocks above the 200- and even 50-day averages. In that regard, so far, so good.

We are not fans of the Russell 2000. We have been unkind enough to call it love among the rejects, in the sense companies that grow move on to the grown-up indices.  That said, the Russell has performed not just well of late, but well enough to have some technical significance. Specifically, the components of the index have cycled from less than 10% above their 50-day average to 75%. When above 75%, the index has compounded at an annualized rate of 30%, according to SentimentTrader.com. Last time we mentioned the biotech ETF (XBI -84), which is equal weighted and therefore gives more emphasis to small-cap stocks. There is better behavior here and in other areas in the small-cap universe. Perhaps more important, this offers further evidence of expanding participation, another positive in the overall background.

Timex Tesla? If you recall the former’s commercial – it takes a licking and keeps on ticking. When Musk was busy firing people, we had thought he might better have heeded Walter Reuther’s admonition to Henry Ford, “who do you think buys these cars?” Since its third-quarter results, Tesla’s (TSLA – 319) biggest moves have been related to politics, more specifically Trump. And now two grown men, volatile and egotistical are spatting – Who could have seen that coming? While threats abound, and hence spatting versus arguing, you would think there’s risk to Tesla shares. And recently, the stock did take a hit down to the 50-day. Yet Tesla always seems to find a way — robots, Robo-taxis, its cult status, whatever. Its devotees, like those of Berkshire (BRKB – 490) which have it much easier, don’t scare easily. The overall chart pattern remains up, all the better if it holds those lows around the 50-day. In turn, a move back above 370 would confirm it’s still ticking.

GE Aerospace (GE – 240) has been remarkable. Not only is the stock nearly a double from its April low, but it’s also the way it has done it. The uptrend has been amazingly consistent, dropping below its weighted 21-day average only in the last couple of days. This average typically is for traders rather than investors, as it basically hugs the stock price. While the Air India mishap likely will lead to weakness, stocks don’t go straight up then go straight down. This rendition of the former GE is of course part of the Aerospace/Defense sector, where ETFs, ITA (179) and XAR (199) have the same basic pattern. While this would suggest GE is the driver, it’s only a part of the many good charts. Others include Curtiss Wright (CW – 474), Howmet (HWM – 172), and drone makers like AVAV (190) and KTOS (41). The more conventional defense names like Lockheed (LMT – 469), General Dynamics (GD – 280), and Northrop (NOC – 497) have more neutral patterns.

Perhaps not surprisingly, many charts have the pattern of the S&P and the NASDAQ, which is to say, they are still in consolidation patterns. The textbook says this is a continuation pattern, meaning you might think of them as a rest before a trend continues. In that sense, the market would seem still to have a lot to look forward to as these patterns are successfully resolved. The Software (IGV – 107) and Semiconductor (SMH – 263) ETFs also offer examples here. The latter already seems to have broken out on the back of stocks like ASML (786) and KLAC (875). The recent Oracle (ORCL – 200) news should help the former. Meanwhile, it’s the market that makes the news, and the market seems quite positive. That said, the lackluster response to the CPI number and China tariff news was a bit disappointing. The market’s comeback on Thursday, that was a pleasant surprise.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA: 42,319

A pause … that refreshes? This three-week trading range always seemed little more than that.  Even peaks like late January have their prerequisite deterioration – there are V-bottoms, no V-tops. The recent consolidation has not been without some weakness, including five consecutive days down from May 19, one of those 9-to-1 down. And recently we saw a couple of what we call bad up days – up in the Averages but negative A/Ds.  A couple of days are just that, even 9-to-1 days. The key from here is not the bad days, rather for those A/Ds to keep pace with the Averages. If the market’s little rest is over, the proof is in what it shows on the upside – it’s about market breadth and expanding volume.  Meanwhile, the market seems to have come around to not reacting to every piece of tariff news. We doubt that would hold true for bad auction news.

Trials and tribulations seem an apt description of Biotech. The recent tribulation resulting from a trial was that of Regeneron (483). It’s not just about those trials; the group is what you might call out of favor. Less kindly, they have been down so long almost anything looks like up. However, measured by the XBI ETF (83) the stocks finally are above their 50-day average. They also have a seasonally favorable tailwind through mid-July. This week also saw the Meta (685) deal with Constellation (290) further boost the nuclear space – reactors, uranium, utilities, et al. URA (33) is one of the ETFs there.  Meanwhile, look at the Aerospace and Defense stocks as peace does not seem at hand – XAR (195) or ITA (180) are ETFs relevant there.

Frank Gretz

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Just when you thought things couldn’t get much better… they didn’t.  And Wednesday’s 800-point Dow loss and a close to 10-to-1 down day wasn’t exactly a subtle change. Rising bond yields have been a potential problem for equities, but like most potential problems, they don’t matter until they matter. Why it should have been Wednesday’s auction is something of a timing mystery. We’ve likened the bond problem to the tariff problem back in February. Granted, the tariff news worsened, but tariffs didn’t matter until the technical background had shown obvious deterioration. That’s hardly the case now, with the A/D index having just made a new high and outperforming the market averages – not just a positive, a rare one. The market’s problem is a good one – it has been too good. Many stock patterns are stretched.  The weakness strikes us as a swipe at complacency and a chance for the winners to reset.

The deficit has never been this deep outside of a recession. Now we sit on the brink of more tax cuts with minimal attempts at cost cuts, meaning still deeper deficits. Moody’s only finally got to what the other two had gotten.  What matters, of course, is that the most important rating agency seems to have gotten it, the one called the bond market. Meanwhile, it has been a while, but bad days happen. Bad down days don’t kill uptrends it’s the bad up days – those when the stock averages mask weakness in the average stock. We have seen a couple such days, but a couple of days don’t kill an uptrend. We had a V-bottom – down to up in a flash. Market tops are about distribution and that takes time.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA: 42,323

Chase the bear or chase the bull…the Algos chase both.  Sharp and quick declines ending in so-called V-bottoms have been more common since the 2008 Financial Crisis. And they do fit the somewhat contradictory mantra of this bull market – buy the dip, and chase strength. What is particularly positive about this market is that the chase has been true of the average stock as much as the stock averages. In someways even more so. An Advance/Decline index simply adds a day’s net advances to a previous cumulative total. Such an index for the 30 Dow Industrials, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 all reached new highs last week while the respective indexes themselves were below their highs. That’s quite rare and speaks to what you might call the market’s internal or underlying strength.

If history is a guide, when it comes to markets it is only just that. Sadly, it’s no longer the likes of Jesse Livermore driving markets, it’s more Jesse.Algo – Things have changed. Still, human nature remains the same, as does momentum from whatever its origin. All this is to say the rally has impressive credentials, even for the longer term. What will lead to its demise is pretty much the opposite of what we just saw. While the stock averages will continue higher, the average stock will begin to lag.  The A/Ds will narrow, worse still, turn flat in up markets. Similarly, stocks above their 200-day will stall and roll over. These would be signs the money is running out, and less money means less participation. One caveat in these numbers would be a move in stocks above the 200-day back above 70%, typically indicative of a new bull market. That in turn would take even longer to unwind.

So, the Saudi’s are investing. We know little of their track record here, other than some long ago venture into Citigroup. We suppose they have been good shepherds of their oil, but that’s not exactly something they invented. What is a bit worrisome is the history of foreign investing, thinking of Japan’s untimely purchase of Rockefeller Center back when they were on top. Just saying – Not predicting. Meanwhile, the AI contingent with Nvidia (NVDA – 135) in the lead, has come storming back as has pretty much all of Tech. More than 40% of Tech recently were at new highs relative to the S&P. For some of the Semis, this was quite a feat. Software meanwhile is more than holding its own. And then there’s Tesla, the car company/battery company/autonomous driving company/meme stock/cult stock.  Whatever it takes, Tesla (TSLA – 343) finds a way higher. As CNBC’s Mike Santoli cleverly quipped, “a stock that doesn’t show its work.”

When it comes to oil, the news is like a country and western song. Maybe that’s a good thing – it can’t get much worse. This makes it all the more intriguing that the stocks have held together reasonably well. Credit the breadth of the market or do better times lie ahead?   At a scant 3% weighting in the S&P, things wouldn’t have to get a lot better to have an impact on those stock prices. For oil and other commodities, helping in part is likely about a better look from China. And then there’s Walmart (WMT – 96), with a long-term chart that is the envy of many Tech stocks. Despite the obvious impact of tariffs and the market’s 20% drawdown, Walmart held together almost surprisingly well.  Yet in some ways it shouldn’t be a surprise. During uncertain times, when consumers pull back, Walmart has proven an unlikely beneficiary.

With tariff worries almost a memory and the market rallying, seems like nothing but blue skies. That’s a bit surprising considering the long bond is near 5% again – a good excuse for a setback were one to come along. Fortunately, bad news seems to follow rather than lead price – sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.  Monday saw a great rally in the averages and a good rally in the market. Any day with 1000-point gain in the Dow has to be called a great day, even with only three-to-one up rather than five-to-one up.  There are no bad three-to-one up days.  Keep those coming and we’re all great traders. Meanwhile, let’s just stay away from the bad up days— up in the averages with flat or negative A/Ds.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA: 41,608

As we predicted… there is no predicting.  For the Semis the news broke positively on Wednesday evening.  Of course, this comes after Nvidia’s (NVDA – 117) recent write-off when news broke the other way. It’s a difficult way to go about investing but as they say, deal with it – it’s not going away. How best to deal with it is to focus on the basics. In the end it’s the market that makes the news and a technically healthy backdrop is the key. News follows price. In good markets the news is good and bad news is temporary, if not altogether ignored.  The market has put together a rather remarkable recovery not just in terms of the averages, but the average stock and that’s the key to a healthy Market. When most days most stocks go up, the news will take care of itself.

Numbers like the Advance/Declines and stocks above the 200-day moving average, participation in other words, are the key to judging any rally. Rallies that have it will endure, without those, the rally will fail. The structure of a rally sometimes also can offer an insight as to its quality. In this case, that structure is V-shaped, a fast decline and a fast recovery. The more of a decline that is retraced and the quicker it occurs, the more bullish for future returns, according to Sentimentrader.com. So, in this case, it should be a good sign that the S&P has retraced half of its losses, and it did so in 18 days. Much has changed over the last 20 years, decimalization, the proliferation of ETFs and so on, making these V-shaped lows more common.  Still, it’s one more thing that increases the probability of a credible low.

This rally, of course, is about more than just Tech. Indeed, what speaks to the quality of the rally is as we’ve said its breadth.  Remember the excitement a while back around infrastructure? The spend was always just around the corner. The stocks finally gave up to drift lower, and then some. You don’t hear much about infrastructure in these days of cutting everything, but stocks like Vulcan (VMC – 268), Sterling Infrastructure (STRL – 179), Martin Marietta Materials (MLM – 541) and Quanta Services (PWR –326) have acted particularly well of late. And when is it not a good time to look at what we sometimes call the “sleep at night stocks”, those stocks in relatively consistent long-term uptrends. Insurance certainly is one area that fits here, and the waste management stocks another – names like Waste Management (WM – 233), Republic Services (RSG – 249), and Waste Connection (WCN – 196).

There are companies, and there are the stocks of those companies. The two are typically equated, but they are hardly the same. Stocks are pieces of paper, and those pieces of paper are subject to forces of supply and demand well beyond corporate prospects. We’re thinking here of Palantir this week, the company versus the stock. Palantir, the company is easy enough to like, Palantir (PLTR – 119) the stock is a different story. Similarly, the company’s earnings this week were easy enough to like, the stock’s reaction to those earnings not so much. As last week’s Barron’s pointed out, at some 60x sales there’s not much good news that has not been priced in. To look at the chart of Palantir, you might say the same. This seems more about the market, where Tech had become a bit suspect, but this too could be changing.

Ignoring bad news is good, so too is responding to good news. The market did respond to the trade deal and chip news, it did not respond to news from the FOMC that the risk of stagflation is rising. The actual words were quite bleak, “the risk of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.” For all the hoopla that surrounds the Fed and its meetings, stocks care more about tariffs and Tech than monetary policy, at least for now. Meanwhile, forget Gold as a safe haven, bring on the speculative Bitcoin. Bitcoin is about to break out on this news while Gold is taking a well-deserved rest.  Both seem attractive given that throughout history governments have dealt with massive debt by inflating their way out of it.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA: 40,752

If half of your brain is technical and half fundamental… you probably have a migraine. Chaos seems the order of the day fundamentally, disruption to be a bit more kind. When companies stop forecasting or when like Delta they forecast with or without tariffs, that says a lot. Uncertainty may be the word which describes things best, and we all know how the market feels about uncertainty. The technical side has a different look. After all, 20% corrections don’t come along because everything is peachy. The tariffs came along against a weakened technical background, but news somehow always seems to follow price. In any event, the decline has resulted in stocks above their 200-day dropping below 20%, while the VIX spiked and has significantly reversed – panic and an end to the panic. This is the backdrop typical of and needed for a viable low.

When conditions for a low seem in place, the next step is to look for evidence of that in the character of the rally which follows. The late Marty Zweig was a well-regarded technical analyst, perhaps best known for his indicator development. Among those was one involving unusually positive Advance/Decline numbers. The indicator measures NYSE advancing issues as a percentage of advancing and declining issues, to which a moving average is applied. Particularly interesting is the six-month timeframe, with 20 uninterrupted gains since 1938. A bit less complicated momentum reversal was apparent last week when on Monday fewer than 8% of S&P stocks advanced on the day and Tuesday some 98% advanced. Since the financial crisis swings like this have occurred near the end of the declines.

Assuming we have a credible low, the question next is how far it might carry. Someone knows, but they’re probably living in the south of France and aren’t telling. We will stick our neck out to say we won’t go up every day as we have since last Monday. And we will even go on to say the S&P 50-day around 5700, pretty much where we are now, is a logical stalling point – even bull markets don’t go straight up. Like the rally into mid-February and like all rallies they end when they do something wrong. Wrong in this case is the opposite of what we just saw at the recent low. Stocks above their 200-day average will stall and/or turn down, Advance/Decline numbers will do the same. We haven’t said this in a while – beware of the bad up days, up in the averages and flat let alone negative A/Ds.

Gold, you might say, has been as good as gold. It may, however, be deserving of a rest, in this case not a euphemism for a big correction. Barrons featured Gold on its cover last weekend, not a perfect contrary indicator but there’s little denying Gold is no longer a secret. Also, May and June are seasonally weak periods. Meanwhile, we once noted that just as you never see Clark Kent and Superman together, rarely do you see Gold and Bitcoin move together. Some of the reasons that have made Gold appealing are true as well for Bitcoin – primarily uncertainty.  Bitcoin ran up following the election to the point that it was much like Gold now. The tipping point for Bitcoin seemed to be the announcement of the strategic reserve when, as we recall, bitcoin failed to rally. It now seems to have righted itself chart wise.

It seems even some technical analysts are leaning brain fundamental – thinking the rally will be of limited duration. That’s a bit surprising but we get it, after all we’re writing about it. It’s not hard to look at the dark side, but as a colleague pointed out the same was true in March 2009. It’s human nature to want answers but as Thomas Hobbes once wrote, the best prophet is the best guesser. New bull market or bear market rally? The only real answer is that time will tell. As an observer rather than a prophet – they look higher. Meanwhile, if Tech you must, software (IGV – 97.07)   looks better than the semis (SMH – 212.30). Stocks like Netflix (NFLX – 1133.47), McDonald’s (MCD – 313.50), GE (GE – 203.57) and Walmart (WMT – 97.39), the ETFs ARKK (50.71) and MTUM (211.49), also seem attractive.

Frank D. Gretz

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