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When Both Cisco & Sysco Are Acting Well…

When both Cisco (CSCO – 78) and Sysco (SYY – 84) are acting well… it’s hard to call the market narrow. You can argue Tech is mixed, the Semis versus Software, but when it comes to the guys who make the stuff that makes the stuff, ASML (1455), KLAC (1685) or AMAT (341), there is blowout sort of strength. Similarly, when it comes to the guys who dig the stuff that make the stuff, the Metals and Miners, XME (127), there’s blowout strength as well. So, with this seeming across-the-board strength, how is it we’ve seen the A/Ds falter a bit? The typical answer is the Financial stocks, owing to their number, and to look at the Financial ETF (XLF – 54) this does seem the case. Again, typically this could be a concern, but in this case seems a reflection of rate regulation. Then, too, it is best not to make excuses for the numbers.

With stocks above their 200-day in the mid-60s, and yet to show deterioration, the overall background still seems sound. The Financials could become worrisome, but there’s also evidence in Staples of expanding participation. Sure, Microsoft (MSFT – 434) is disappointing as is most of Software, that’s not new but it has brought the message to the fore. Yet for every Microsoft, there’s a META (738) or IBM (309). Meanwhile, back in 1929 a 10% position in Homestake Mining, equivalent today to Newmont Corp. (NEM – 127), made up for any losses. The interesting thing there is that the 20s and 30s were a period of deflation rather than inflation. What drives Gold now – dollar weakness, geopolitical uncertainty, China’s Taiwan threat, is not clear. After its run Gold is a bit hard to buy, but less hard to ride.

Frank D. Gretz

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US Strategy Weekly: Background Noise

A torrent of problems appears to be challenging US equities. Congress faces a January 30 deadline to fund the government or risk another partial government shutdown. Atomic scientists suggest the ‘Doomsday Clock’ is closer to midnight than ever before. The European Union and India reached a landmark trade deal to reduce tariffs and more importantly, trade in local currencies to sidestep the dollar. President Trump’s rhetoric to acquire Greenland has the Prime Ministers of Greenland and Denmark huddling with German Chancellor Fredrich Merz in Berlin, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo are openly courting President Xi Jinping of China. All of this suggests a disturbing shift in geopolitics, so not surprisingly, many emerging market central banks (China, Poland, and Brazil) as well as individuals are buyers of gold sending precious metal prices to record highs. But it was the Trump administration’s proposal to keep the Medicare rates it pays insurers unchanged in 2027 that decisively smacked the health insurance sector this week, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Nonetheless, if one looks at the broad environment for equities, it is questionable whether these events present a shift for the financial world or are merely background noise.

In our view, it is merely background noise. In fact, even this week’s FOMC meeting has become less important to equity investors, who not long ago were laser focused on rate cuts to support their positive view of stocks. Today it is widely viewed that there will be no change in policy, and this is not expected to cause any ripples in the markets.

Earnings Are Stellar

What is important to the equity market is earnings and although the fourth quarter earnings season is still young, the season is off to a strong start, apart from a few isolated exceptions in the financial sector due to potential policy changes by the administration. According to LSEG IBES, of the 64 companies in the S&P 500 that released earnings last week, nearly 80% reported above analyst expectations. This was well above the long-term average of 67%. And equities are performing well. Small-cap stocks have outperformed large caps for 15 consecutive sessions, a run not seen in decades. The Russell 2000 index is beating the S&P 500 with a gain of 7.5% year-to-date, versus the S&P 500’s gain of 1.9%. However, even amid the turmoil we just noted, the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000 reached record high territory on January 27, 2026.The Russell 2000 index made an all-time high on January 22, 2026, at 2718.77.

None of this is surprising given the strength of the economy. The second estimate for third quarter 2025 GDP was 4.4% (SAAR), up from the initial 4.3% estimate. Part of this improvement came from updated data on trade. The net impact of trade on economic activity was negative 2.4% in the third quarter, down from negative 3.0% in the second quarter. More importantly, this percentage is below the long-term average of negative 3.7%. The improvement in net trade came primarily from a decline in the importation of goods which fell from 12.3% of GDP in the first quarter of 2025 to 10.4% in the third quarter. The imports of goods as a percentage of GDP have averaged 12.4% over the last 25 years. See page 4. In short, the administration’s tariff policy is raising money for the US Treasury and improving GDP. And as we noted last week, it is also improving the all-important US debt to GDP ratio.

This stellar economic activity is also supporting corporate earnings. Four-quarter trailing GDP corporate earnings increased 6.9% in the third quarter, after growing 4.5% in the second quarter. This is solid performance but far from the best performance seen in GDP profits. S&P 500 earnings grew at a healthy 13.0% pace on a cumulative four-quarter basis at the end of the third quarter, and some analysts see the current 14% YOY pace as peak earnings and a sign that earnings growth is about to decelerate. But historically, peak earnings growth has been greater than 25% YOY, as seen in the chart on page 5. Rates of 25% or more were seen in the quarters ending December 1973, September 1979, June 1984, December 1988, December 1993, June 2004, and September 2018. Peak growth rates more than 35% have been seen but were rebounds from recession level earnings. Plus, while the current trailing PE multiple is rather high at 26 times, it too has been much higher at major peaks. 

There were several economic releases in the past week but most of them were for November and not noteworthy. Pending home sales were down 3% YOY for December, a sign that the residential market continues to weaken. For the month of January, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 9.7 points to a 12-year low of 84.5, but we would caution readers that the Conference Board has a pattern of revising previously released data upward. In sharp contrast, the University of Michigan sentiment for January rose 3.5 points to 56.4, and present conditions jumped 5 points to 55.4. The University of Michigan has a pattern of revising data lower. More importantly, both surveys are politically skewed and neither has been a good guide for economic or equity performance. See page 3.

Dollar Yen

We are not concerned about the current messiness of geopolitics, but we are worried about the weakness in the dollar and the yen and the ramification this can have on security markets. The weakness in the yen is the result of the stimulus proposed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi coupled with Japan’s debt to GDP ratio of 230%, the highest in the developed world. This combination makes Japanese sovereign debt a risky investment. Although foreign ownership of Japan’s sovereign debt has been rising in recent years, it is still less than 12%; nevertheless, foreigners account for over 50% of daily trading volume and this adds to volatility. Japan is also the single largest holder of US Treasuries with $1.2 trillion as of November 2025. Japan is followed by the UK with $888.5 billion and China with $682.6 billion of US Treasuries. In comparison, the Federal Reserve currently holds $4.24 trillion US Treasury securities. The immediate risks are twofold. Japan could intervene in currency markets to strengthen the yen which could also mean selling US Treasuries to buy yen. This would raise interest rates and weaken the dollar. A second concern in the yen-dollar carry trade. Estimates for the total size of the yen-dollar carry trade range from $250 billion to over $1 trillion (when leverage is included) and an unwinding of the carry trade could be very disruptive to markets. The yen-carry trade has worked for many years because borrowing in yen (where interest rates are currently low and were negative from January 2016 to March 2024) and investing in higher yielding investments, like US stocks and bonds is a solid strategy — as long as currencies remain stable. But with Japanese interest rates headed higher and US interest rates potentially headed lower, this trade is becoming less attractive, particularly in the current environment of weakening and/or volatile currencies. Keep in mind that a potential unwinding of the carry trade, while unsettling, would not impact corporate earnings growth, which is the foundation of the current bull market. In short, an unwinding of the carry trade would be a buying opportunity, in our view. Technical indicators improved this week. In particular, the NYSE cumulative advance decline line made a new high on January 27, 2026, in line with, and confirming the record highs seen in the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000. And while the S&P 500 made a new high, most sectors of the market are outperforming this index as seen on page 11. This is due to the rotation of leadership that has taken place this year. Rotation is a healthy sign in a bull market advance.  

Gail Dudack

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FROM AUSTERITY TO STIMULUS

2025 was the third consecutive year of double-digit gains for the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite.  Importantly, the bull market in equities was not confined to the U.S., with most major international markets participating with handsome gains. We think 2026 could be another positive year for investors, but with the possibility of one or two intermediate corrections along the way.

Our enthusiasm for 2026 primarily stems from actions taken in 2025 as the U.S. rotates from the austerity of tariffs to the stimulative effect of fiscal and monetary policy. Included are $150B in additional tax refunds in early 2026, $200B in tax cuts for factories, cap goods and R&D, additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, expansion of the Fed balance sheet, foreign investment, and the potential for significant financial deregulation.  Deregulation itself could drive down bond yields and mortgage rates, which would jumpstart the moribund housing market. Inflation continues to ebb, allowing consumers to benefit from easing prices. Our biggest concern remains employment. A tax refund does little to help someone without a job, but with the Federal Reserve pivoting, credit channels for small businesses should reopen and contribute to increasing employment.

Rarely has so much economic stimulus stood ready to influence an economic cycle, a fact that has not been lost on those who forecast economic activities and corporate profits. Consensus forecasts call for U.S. GDP growth of 3.5% in 2026 and a 15% increase in S&P 500 earnings. Both are above long term trends while inflation is falling.

The flip side of this rosy scenario is that there are many more unknowns and the world is increasingly becoming a more dangerous place with military conflicts and domestic violence spreading. Voters do not like this, and we would not be surprised to see a split Congress by the end of this year, one factor which may lead to a pullback in the market this year. In the final analysis, however, it is the direction of corporate profits and interest rates that determine the level of equity prices, which leads us to expect another positive year.

                                                                                                                        January 2026

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Life is Good…

DJIA: 49,384

If you are light on most Tech, have a little Healthcare, Commodities and especially Precious Metals… Life is good. Life was good last year if you were pretty much all-in on Tech, especially of the AI variety. The moral to the story of course, things change. The further moral seems it’s not if you’re in the market, but where you are in. IBD argues that at least 70% of a stock’s movement is the function of the overall market trend.  We would argue another 70% is about group or sector behavior – don’t mention that math to our eighth-grade nun.  What they loosely call secondary stocks have been the winners of late, see IWM, or IJT, or even the Equal Weight S&P. If you’re buying the ETFs themselves, this is good to know. Meanwhile, if you’re not buying an entire index, there are distinctions to be made. Certainly not all large caps are bad, certainly not all small caps are good.

An excellent example here might be Semiconductors versus Software. There are not many bad Semis, large or small, and there are not many good Software stocks, large or small.  An even more obvious example is the Gold stocks. Both large and small are performing well. And we’re seeing more and more improvement in Industrial Metals. Even Oil has greatly improved, perhaps mainly because it is another Commodity. Participation is the key to a healthy market, and participation has improved even in the last couple of weeks. Advancing issues versus those declining are better, stocks above their 50-day average are now in the upper 60s, no longer stuck in the 50–60 range. Part of this too is about an improvement in Staples like Colgate (CL – 86) and, finally, Costco (COST – 976). As for the news flow of late, remember it’s the market that makes the news.

Frank D. Gretz

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US Strategy Weekly: Trumponomics

This week, as President Trump approached his one-year anniversary in the White House, the Wall Street Journal wrote “economists have learned to stop worrying about Trumponomics” and are now forecasting GDP growth to exceed 2% this year. In our view, even a 2% estimate may be too conservative for 2026; still, it is obvious that the stagflation forecasted for 2025 never came to pass. December’s core CPI decelerated to 2.6% YOY, down from 3.3% YOY in January and GDP was running at a hot 4.3% pace in the third quarter.

President Trump has proven the media wrong about the economy; however, he continues to find new and bigger ways to agitate them. This week, along with threatening to place tariffs on countries that disagree with his view on acquiring Greenland, a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, he signed an executive order that implied defense contractors “are not permitted in any way, shape, or form to pay dividends or buy back stock, until such time as they are able to produce a superior product, on time and on budget.” In short, he wants defense companies with government contracts to invest in their businesses and become more efficient, instead of repurchasing stock or paying their top executives salaries of $5 million or more a year. In line with this, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made overhauling Pentagon acquisition policy a priority and pledged to broaden its range of vendors with more startups and commercial companies. In our opinion, this executive order is Trump being Trump, i.e., a businessman and a disruptor, and like any normal consumer, he wants value when spending tax-payer dollars. The intent may be commendable, but the approach is creating a major backlash among corporate leaders and may generate more harm than good in the longer run.

Nevertheless, we disagree with the following Wall Street Journal statement: “Stock buybacks, like dividends, return capital to investors. They also boost earnings per share and help propel stock prices, which is why many investors prize them and would recoil at the notion of government interference.”

Much like our argument that tariffs are not taxes, we believe stock buybacks are not dividends. Stock buybacks make earnings-per-share look better, but changing the denominator does not mean real earnings power (the numerator) has grown nor does it guarantee higher stock prices. We also disagree that buybacks are “prized” by investors; the real return on capital for equity investors is a combination of rising stock prices and dividend payouts. Stock buybacks do not guarantee higher prices to investors, whereas stock dividends represent real money in the pockets of investors. Moreover, dividends are typically a guaranteed revenue stream to shareholders.

We do agree that government interference is the antithesis of capitalism. However, government interference has been a part of every administration, although the interference is usually done behind closed doors. For example, it was revealed that government agencies controlled social media posts and medical studies regarding COVID-19 and vaccines several years after the fact. Vaccines continue to directly impact public health and wellbeing. Equally important, government-mandated vaccines resulted in extraordinary earnings gains for the pharmaceutical industry; yet the media has never investigated this connection. The current administration on the other hand, is unusually open and transparent, perhaps too much so and the chaos this creates is problematic for those who like order and tranquility.

As we go to print, President Trump is on his way to Davos, Switzerland, to speak at The World Economic Forum (January 19-23, 2026), an annual gathering of global leaders in business, government, and civil society. It comes at a time when Trump has upset the global community with his statement that there is “no going back” on his goal to control Greenland for national and world security. Moreover, the threat to impose 10% tariffs on the eight European countries that oppose his view has galvanized European leaders against President Trump. Ironically, Trump is threatening more tariffs just as the world awaits a US Supreme Court decision on the legality of the administration’s use of an emergency law to enact tariffs. Nonetheless, at a midday White House press conference, the President hinted that there may be a pathway that leads NATO nations to agree with his view. In short, it will be fascinating to watch egos colliding in the Swiss Alps this week.

There was a flurry of economic releases this week and the PCE deflator for October and November and the second estimate for 3Q25 GDP will be released later this week. Last week’s November’s PPI release showed final demand prices rising 2.9%, up slightly from October, but down from September. December industrial production rose 2% YOY, but utility production of 2.3% YOY was key to the strength. December’s existing home sales were surprisingly strong at 4.35 million units (annualized) which was a 1.4% YOY increase. At that pace the months of supply fell to 3.3 from 4.2 months in November. The median single-family home price was $405,400, up 0.4% YOY. However, the January NAHB housing index weakened to 37 from 39 and remains well below the breakeven 50 level. See page 5. The NFIB small business index inched up to 99.5 in January, representing the eighth consecutive month above the long term average of 98. See page 4.

In our opinion, the most important release of the week was the US current account deficit (trade plus investment income) which narrowed to $226.4 billion, or 2.9% of GDP, in the third quarter of 2025. This was $22.8 billion lower than the revised second quarter deficit of $249.2 billion, or 3.3% of GDP. The smaller deficit was the result of a few factors, including a shift from a deficit to a surplus in net income payments, a larger surplus in services, and a smaller deficit in goods. The importance of this is that deficits subtract from GDP. As deficits decline, GDP will strengthen. See page 3.

The current administration, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent in particular, is focused on both US deficits, including the fiscal deficit. At the end of 2025 (December), the 12-month sum of monthly fiscal deficits represented 5.4% of nominal GDP (3Q25), down from 5.7% at the end of the fiscal 2025 year and down from the 6.2% seen at the end of fiscal 2024. This 5.4% should be lower once nominal GDP for the fourth quarter of the year is released. The goal of the administration is to get the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP or less, and to have economic activity above 3.5%. This combination would reverse the unsustainable trend seen in 2024. In the long run it should also lower long-term interest rates.

There have only been twelve trading days in 2026, but they have been interesting ones. Despite January 20th’s 871-point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the index is up 0.9% year-to-date. The Dow Jones Transports are up 2.9%, the DJ Utility index is up 1.5%, the S&P 500 is off fractionally, and the Nasdaq Composite is down 1.2%. However, the Russell 2000 index is up a stellar 6.6% year-to-date and has been a significant outperformer in 2026. This rotation of leadership among sectors and from large-cap to small-cap equities is characteristic of a healthy bull market cycle. And while this week’s decline — sparked by a 19-basis point jump in Japanese government bond yields and anxiety related to Greenland — was the largest since October 9, 2025, it did not generate a 90% down day. Our view has not changed. The 2025 equity market was driven by better-than-expected earnings growth, and we expect the same will be true in 2026. Trailing 12-month earnings growth is currently 14.3% versus the long-term average of 8.1%. See page 6. We remain a buyer of dips.

Gail Dudack

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When Bad News Breaks… Good Markets Fix It

DJIA: 49,442

When bad news breaks… good markets fix it. So it goes, good markets make the news. The residual weakness from Monday’s decline was a bit surprising, but not technically harmful. That seems particularly so when weakness is relegated to the averages and not so much to the average stock. And the advanced/decline index recently made a new high, and it typically leads at market downturns. Overall, the backdrop has had a couple of important improvements recently. NYSE stocks above their 200-day average had been stuck in a mediocre 50–60% range pretty much since the April low. It jumped to 65% from 59% last week. Weekly 12-month new highs also moved back to their peak, doubling both on the NYSE in NASDAQ. Healthy markets are about this kind of participation.

Tech is here to stay – you might want to write that down. A recent Barons article pointed out 33% of the S&P is correlated with AI, our news is not new. The big guys make money, though now seem bent on spending it, the others, who knows? The concern isn’t about the money or the multiples, though many argue that’s why there’s no bubble. Either they were born last night or have forgotten the nifty 50, certainly a bubble and certainly stocks that made money. The concern, rather, is who is left to buy? So far so good for most of the Semis, not so good for most of Software. The same might be said even of the MAG 7. There’s the good – Amazon (AMZN – 238) and Google (GOOG – 333), and the not so good – Microsoft (MSFT – 457) and Meta Platforms (META – 621).

On the other side of the ownership spectrum is Oil, at something like 3% of the S&P by market cap. Let us be among the many who will say, with good reason. Pick your term – awash, glut, surfeit – there’s no good reason to buy Oil. Yet there is in a sense the same rationale for not buying Tech – for Tech who is left to buy, for Oil who is left to sell. Granted and for sure, this is no call to arms, so to speak, a time to sell Tech and buy Oil. This is, however, a time to be aware, and possibly prepared. In this somewhat risky world, if something were to go wrong, when it comes to Oil everyone is on the wrong side of the boat. And, by the way, the charts are much improved. When it comes to the mess in Venezuela, rather than the guys who might pony up billions for a return decades away, SLB Ltd (SLB – 47) and Halliburton (HAL – 33) might be a better choice.

While Commodities are at the forefront of our attention these days, a couple of other areas seem worthy of a look. The recent Healthcare conference brought some interesting interviews, among those companies Novo-Nordisk (NVO – 57). Our go to stock here has been Lilly (LLY – 1033), but even Pfizer (PFE – 26) is now applying itself to this area. Hard to forget what happen when they applied themselves to the vaccine. Not a Biotech but related in its way is Thermal Fisher (TMO – 625). After a four-year hiatus, what those technical analysts call a base, the stock has our favorite chart pattern – a spike out of the base and a high-level consolidation. And then there’s the Defense stocks. To look at the ETFs like XAR (289) they are more than a little stretched.  Doubtful this is about Venezuela, more likely worries about Taiwan.

Precious metals have far outstripped stocks since the US election. Silver, especially, has rallied enough to bring about those conspiracy theories. Then, too, when Geopolitical pressures mount, and there are a few, Precious Metals tend to benefit. And now the trade has expanded to most, if not all Commodities. Getting back to the market, and basics, while the averages have been all over the place this week the average stock has not. The advance-decline numbers have been remarkably consistently positive. You might argue better action in the Financials, and there are many, or better action in the Oil shares, of which there are many – how you get to the good numbers doesn’t matter. The A/Ds of course only measure direction, stocks up versus stocks down. In that regard, the breakout in stocks above their 200-day seems an important confirmation.

Frank D. Gretz

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US Strategy Weekly: Amid Chaos…

Economic news was surprisingly supportive of a rate cut later this month, but this was not apparent in the news headlines. Regarding inflation, Reuters wrote US consumer inflation increases steadily, but households paying more for food and rents.” The actual CPI report showed headline inflation was unchanged at 2.7% YOY and core inflation fell from 2.8% to 2.6% YOY in December. (Note: Due to the government shutdown, there was no inflation report for October, and only partial data for November. However, for our charts, we left October data unchanged from September and incorporated BLS data for November and December. The BLS release has a chart showing headline inflation falling from 3% in September to 2.7% in November/December and core CPI falling from 3% in September to 2.6% in November/December.)

It is true that food inflation was 3.1% in December, up from 2.6% in November but this was due to stubborn inflation seen in meats, poultry, fish, and eggs at 3.9%. However, this category is down from 4.7% in November and a recent peak of 7.9% in March 2025. The other culprit in the food category is nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials which indicated prices rose 5.1% YOY, up from 4.3% YOY in November. Food away from home has always remained high and in December it showed prices up 4.1% YOY versus 3.7% in November. Yet despite the increases in food inflation, core CPI fell because energy price inflation fell from 4.2% YOY in November to 2.3% YOY in December. The Reuters headline regarding rents is true since prices are typically rising except for periods of recession or depression, but it is still misleading since homeowners’ equivalent rent was 3.4% YOY, down fractionally from November and down from 3.8% in September. In short, don’t rely on headlines if you want the real news.

The ISM nonmanufacturing index was 54.4 in December, up from 52.6 and six of the nine components rose during the month. The declines were seen in suppliers’ deliveries, order backlog, and prices paid (a plus!). The employment index was 52.0, up from 48.9, and the sum of employment in both surveys now totals 96.9. This is good news since it carries this index safely into neutral territory and above the danger zone of 92.1 or less. See page 6. This is especially reassuring since the December job report was worrisome.

The employment report indicated a below consensus 50,000 jobs were created in the month of December. However, the underlying data was weaker since previous months were reduced by a net 76,000 jobs. In short, the 3-month average fell to a loss of 22,330 jobs per month. Most concerning is that the year-over-year change in employment shows the growth rate fell to 0.4% YOY, which is well below the long-term average of 1.7% YOY. Note that when the year-over-year change in jobs turns negative it is a near-certain sign of a recession. In contrast, the household survey was more sanguine and showed the unemployment rate fell from 4.5% in November to 4.4% in December. This was due in large part to a decrease in the civilian labor force and a 278,000 decline in the number of people unemployed. The U6 unemployment rate fell from 8.7% to 8.4%. See page 3.

Deceleration in the labor market is obvious in the numbers. Over the last twelve months, the average growth in jobs was 48,670 per month; this fell to 14,500 per month over the last six months. The current 3-month change shows a loss of 22,330 jobs per month. As we noted, December’s household survey was the most positive of the two BLS surveys, but while the household survey tends to be volatile it rarely diverges from the establishment survey for long. See page 4. Keep in mind that the jobs report for January will incorporate several revisions including the annual benchmark revision. The BLS already estimated this benchmark revision will show that the economy generated 911,000 fewer jobs than reported between April 2024 and March 2025. This amounts to roughly 71,000 fewer jobs a month, far fewer than the original estimate of 147,000 jobs created per month. On a happier note, the misery index (the sum of the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation) is 7.1% and well below the 12.5% negative level. 

Under normal circumstances December’s weak employment report coupled with December’s mild inflation report might inspire the Federal Reserve to lower rates at their January 27-28, 2026, meeting. However, the controversy over subpoenas sent to Powell asking for more information regarding the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation project may result in a harder stance by the FOMC later this month.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced over the weekend that he has been indicted by the Department of Justice; however, President Trump said he was unaware of the situation. US Attorney Jeanine Pirro stated that the word indictment only came from Powell and subpoenas would not have been needed had he responded to requests for information. Nevertheless, President Trump’s comments calling Powell “incompetent or a crook,” only stoked the situation into a global media frenzy.

Equities, particularly financial stocks, fell this week after President Trump said credit card rates should be capped at 10%. We doubt that any president has the power to cap credit card rates; nevertheless, equity prices fell. President Trump is also fomenting uncertainty by urging Iranians to continue to protest and indicating that “help is on the way.” He also announced his intention to impose 25% tariffs on countries doing business with Iran. These events have pushed the capture of Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela, Greenland, and the pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs, to the background. Of these, only the decision on tariffs will have economic ramifications, in our view.

What is most important for investors is fourth quarter earnings season. In 2025, the equity market was supported by a steady string of positive earnings surprises. This will be more difficult to accomplish in 2026, but we believe it is possible. Financials typically start the earnings season and JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s (JPM – $310.90) results were less than stellar and this weighed on the stock market on Tuesday. Ten more financial stocks will be reporting fourth quarter results this week. Good earnings reports are critical.

The LSEG IBES consensus earnings estimate for 2026 fell $0.04 to $313.84 this week. The S&P Dow Jones estimate for 2026 fell $0.42 to $310.43. Our estimate for 2026 is $315, and we believe this could prove to be conservative. Although PE multiples appear rich, it is important to note that the forward earnings yield for the S&P 500 is 4.6% and the dividend yield is 1.2%. This sum of 5.8% compares well to a 10-year Treasury bond yield of 4.2%. Plus, the 12-month sum of S&P 500 operating earnings shows growth of 14.2% YOY, far better than the 75-year average pace of 8.1% YOY. On a technical basis, breadth data has been bullish. The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line made a record high on January 13, 2026. This means that advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks despite the 398.21-point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on January 13th. The 10-day average of daily new highs is currently 461 and the 10-day average of daily new lows is 77. Since the new high list is averaging well over 100 per day, this is positive. Some have worried that sentiment has become too bullish; however, the AAII bullish index is at 42.5% and bearishness is at 30%. This is far from the 50/20 split that is negative. We remain a buyer of weakness.   

Gail Dudack

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Blow on Them… They’ll Go Up

Blow on them… they’ll go up. That’s what happens when stocks are sold out.  At important lows it’s not the buying that matters it’s getting the selling out of the way. We’re thinking of course of the Oil sector, at something like 3% of the S&P by market cap.  They have rallied sharply recently on the news out of Venezuela. That news being the world could soon be awash in even more Oil, which at $60 per barrel may not even be profitable. While the fundamental logic escapes us, the technical logic does not. No one owns them. Another thing going for Oil is pretty basic — it’s a Commodity and Commodities are hot. Tech is not going away, but this could be the year of Commodities more than Semiconductors. It’s early, of course, but a look at FCX (54) versus NVDA (185) makes our point.


To look at the S&P, or even the NASDAQ 100, the period from October to year end was one of consolidation. It didn’t quite feel that way even during the very positive late December period when winners were sold. As has been the case for much of the time since April, something came along to fill the void, namely the Healthcare and Financial stocks. They call it rotation, provided something does come along. Otherwise, they call it a top. Some have worried of the lack of a momentum surge and we have noted the 50–60% of stocks above their 200-day misses the mark of most bull markets. We have chosen to write this off due to an unusual degree of rotation. Time will tell, to coin a phrase.

Frank D. Gretz

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US Strategy Weekly: Bits and Pieces

Venezuela

Sometimes presidential actions have no economic significance, but often they do. There were many political stories to discuss this week, but the main one is that of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores who were seized from their Caracas compound on Saturday and swiftly flown to the US as part of a special forces operation to face charges in a US federal court. Not surprisingly, politicians are looking for ways to divide public opinion and are campaigning on this action. Democrats are calling it an act of war and a US-driven regime change, while Republicans are calling it an enforcement of outstanding warrants for illegal drug, weapons, and narcoterrorism charges. There has not been a regime change in Venezuela. Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice president, is currently the acting president. Most of Nicolas Maduro’s ministers are still in their posts, and the powerful military remains loyal to her. It is also worth noting that left-of-center Wikipedia describes Maduro’s reign as “characterized by electoral fraud, human rights abuses, corruption, censorship and severe economic hardship. The United Nations (UN) and Human Rights Watch have alleged that under Maduro’s administration thousands of people died in extrajudicial killings and seven million Venezuelans were forced to flee the country due to economic collapse resulting from crippling US sanctions.”

But the seizure of Maduro could have economic as well as political repercussions. Experts are theorizing about Venezuela and Venezuela’s oil, but no one can be certain of what the future will bring. Still, oil and oil equipment stocks responded to the news as seen by year-to-date gains of 2.1% in the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE – $45.64) and 8.7% in the iShares DJ US Oil Equipment & Services ETF (IEZ – $22.69). See page 10. The ideal result of Maduro’s capture and imprisonment would be for current leadership in Venezuela to allow for a new election, the US helps rebuild Venezuela’s crippled resource sector, and all Venezuelans reap the benefits of a re-energized Venezuela and its wealth of oil and mineral reserves. This is aspirational but an extremely big leap. At present, one can assume that there should be more infrastructure spending in Venezuela and more oil coming to market in the future. More oil means lower oil prices, which also means lower inflation. This would be a plus for all consumers and investors and it should be good for US oil services and integrated oil companies.

Santa Claus Rally

2025 was a good year for equity investors but many are worried about 2026 for a variety of reasons. Equities did not follow seasonal patterns in the last year, yet some are still worried that there was no Santa Claus rally. The Santa Claus rally is determined by the last five trading days of the old year and first two trading days of the new year. In the S&P 500 index, this 7-day period ended with a loss of 0.11% and it was a cause for concern. The Nasdaq Composite index also lost 0.7%. However, the Russell 2000 index gained 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.1%. In other words, not only was there a Santa Claus rally this year, but it was a demonstration of sector rotation with gains in small cap and non-technology issues. Sector rotation is a sign of a healthy bull market. So, we would ignore the naysayers and believe in Santa Claus.

Equity Ownership

Federal Reserve data regarding total household and nonprofit assets in June of 2025 showed equity ownership at a record 31%. This exceeds the prior June 2021 peak level of 30% and the March 2000 peak of 27%. Economists are worried. And when just measuring financial assets, equities represented a record 31% of household assets, far more than the 27.4% seen in June 2021 and 24.5% in March 2000. Nevertheless, the charts on page 3 explain why equity ownership has been rising. As corporations shifted pensions from defined benefit plans to defined contribution programs, household assets in pension fund reserves declined nearly 10% from a peak of 34.4% in March 2003 down to 24.8% in June 2025. Fed data includes equities owned directly or indirectly (through defined contribution or insurance plans) and therefore equity ownership levels have increased. Assets in noncorporate, or proprietors’ equity have also declined, and as a result, historical comparisons regarding household equity ownership are difficult. If one only looks at household assets in cash, bonds, and equities, the equity percentage in June was 70.5%, just below the 70.7% recorded at the end of 2021 and just above the 69.6% recorded in March 2000. Real estate ownership has also been declining, and young adults have been shut out of the real estate market due to unaffordable prices and high interest rates. As a result, we are seeing more young people investing in equities and Bitcoin. In sum, the level of household equity ownership for this generation is different and not easy to compare historically. In short, we are not worried about current equity ownership levels.

Economies by State

We were intrigued by a recent article on interstate migration. U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL – $53.37), the do-it-yourself moving and storage operator for household and commercial goods reviewed more than 2.5 million one-way transactions across the US and Canada for its 2025 Growth Index. The results showed that Texas tops the ranks of in-migration states, followed by Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee, and South Carolina. The states with the most people leaving are California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts. Blue-to-red state migration has become a hotly debated topic particularly now that states are redistricting and population has consequences in the House of Representatives. According to U-Haul, “the migration became more pronounced after the pandemic of 2020, continues to be a discernable trend, and seven of the top ten growth states currently feature Republican governors, and nine of those states went red in the last presidential election.” As a past New Yorker, who now enjoys Florida, the migration is understandable in so many ways.

The December ISM manufacturing index fell from 48.2 to 47.9, its tenth consecutive reading below 50. However, five of the ten components of the index rose for the month, and one — prices paid — was unchanged. Production fell slightly to 51.0, imports fell 4.3 to 44.6, inventories fell 3.7 to 45.2, and customers’ inventories fell to 43.3. But employment, new orders, suppliers’ deliveries, order backlog, and exports all rose. Overall, the survey was better than the headline, but manufacturing remains sluggish. See page 4.

Our recent outlook for 2026 indicated that our S&P 500 earnings estimate of $315 coupled with an unchanged trailing PE of 26 translates into a price target for the S&P of 8190. We continue to emphasize that this has been an earnings-driven rally. The LSEG IBES consensus earnings estimate for 2026 rose $1.51 to $313.88 this week. The 2027 forecast rose $1.46 to $359.43. The S&P Dow Jones 2026 earnings estimate rose $1.88 to $310.85. Both surveys are moving toward our estimate of $315, which may prove to be conservative. See page 5. At present, the forward earnings yield of 4.6% and dividend yield of 1.2% compare well to a 10-year Treasury bond yield of 4.2%. Plus, the 12-month sum of operating earnings shows a gain of 14.2% YOY, far better than the 75-year average of 8.1% YOY. And technical indicators remain positive. Most importantly, the NYSE cumulative advance/decline line made a new high on January 6, 2026, confirming the new highs in the indices. This implies the market advance is broad based and healthy. See pages 6-8.

Gail Dudack

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2026: A Year of Risk, but Great Promise

2025 was an excellent year for stockholders. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 13%, the S&P 500 gained 16%, the Nasdaq Composite inked a gain of 20%, and the Russell 2000 index rose 11.3%. But it was not just about US equities; many foreign markets outperformed the US. Even though the S&P 500 nearly touched 7,000 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 48,000, gold also peaked at $4,500 per ounce before closing the year at $4,326, up 65%. Silver, however, was the star performer, closing at $70.13, up 142% for the year. Bitcoin went on a wild ride climbing above $125,000 in October before closing the year at $87,691.92.

Yet what may be most important about the 2025 equity market was that it was the third consecutive year of double-digit gains in all three averages. The last time all three indices had three or more years of double-digit gains was the five years of double-digit gains from 1995 to 1999. The good news about this comparison is that double-digit gains continued for two more years and later became known as the Dot-com bubble. The bad news is that this bubble ended in early 2000 and was followed by three consecutive years of annual losses.

There were several more examples of double-digit equity gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 had three consecutive years of double-digit gains in 1943-1945 and 1949-1951 (four years for the Dow Jones Industrial Average). These two rallies were followed by a year of negative equity performance in 1953. The Nasdaq Stock Market did not begin operations as the world’s first fully electronic stock market until February 8, 1971, and the more volatile Nasdaq Composite Index had three consecutive years of double-digit gains on its own in 1978-1980, 1991-1993 and in conjunction with the S&P 500 in 2012-2014 and 2019-2021. Each of these periods was also followed by a full year of negative or flat performance for equities. In short, three consecutive years of double-digit gains have a long history of predicting losses in the succeeding year.

This performance history certainly presents a risk for equities in 2026. But when we study these various markets, we believe today’s market is most closely comparable to the 1990 era. There is one obvious similarity. The 1990 era was the dawn of the internet, the current cycle is the dawning of artificial intelligence, and both periods saw the stock market led by a small group of stocks related to these technological advances. But there are also important differences. While today’s market does have excitement about the growth and productivity related to artificial intelligence, it does not demonstrate the mania seen at the end of a bubble. In fact, some investors have become skeptical about the return on investment (ROI) related to artificial intelligence and are now asking for measurable returns in upcoming quarterly earnings reports. This is not symptomatic of a bubble peak. From a technical analysis perspective, sentiment indicators have been displaying more skepticism than optimism in recent weeks. This is the opposite of a mania.

In the 1990s era there were several technical indicators that warned that the equity market was vulnerable. The NYSE advance/decline line peaked in 1997 and suffered three years of breadth divergence before the S&P 500 peaked in early 2000! This meant a few large capitalization stocks drove the indices while the broader market was left behind (and declined) for a long time. So, it is notable that the NYSE advance/decline line made a new high on December 25, 2025, confirming the new highs in the market and indicating that 2025 was a broad-based advance. Speculation and credit expansion define the end of a bubble market, and while margin debt was expanding at the end of 2025, it was not rising at the pace seen in 1999.

Most importantly, in the Dot-com era many of the leading internet-related companies were merely concepts and had no earnings at all, only growth “potential.” This may be the most important difference between a bubble peak and the current market. Many of today’s market leaders are linked to artificial intelligence but are both demonstrating exceptional earnings growth and are the major drivers of S&P earnings. Very simply, today’s market has real companies with real earnings growth. Using S&P’s current estimates, S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 14.3% year-over-year in 2025, which is well above the long-term average of 8.1% year-over-year. And note that this was in sharp contrast to a year that many forecasted to be troubled by tariff-induced stagflation. Neither inflation nor stagnation proved to be accurate, and we expect 2026’s economy and earnings will again be better than anticipated.

Our 2026 Forecasts

We expect good economic activity this year and our estimate for 2026 GDP is 3.4% year-on-year, which is above the long-term average of 3.2%. Our 3.4% growth rate would represent the strongest economic activity since the post-pandemic rebound in 2021. However, the significant difference between the two years is that we expect 2026’s economy will be driven by fiscal policy that encourages business investment and consumer spending versus the fiscal and monetary stimulated growth seen in 2021 which focused on government spending and increasing money supply (both of which proved to be inflationary). In fact, some of the stimulus from the past administration is slowly leaving the system which we expect will be a drag on some parts of the market but will not overwhelm the broader economy.

Based upon our GDP forecast, we are raising our 2026 S&P 500 earnings forecast from $310.50 to $315, which reflects a 16% YOY increase. This is slightly better than the anticipated 14% earnings gain currently seen for 2025. We are also raising our 2027 earnings forecast of $345 to $350 to reflect an 11% YOY gain. Note that all three earnings growth rates are greater than the long-term average of 8.1%, nevertheless, we believe our forecasts could prove too conservative.

At the same time, we expect inflation to fall to 2.2% YOY and productivity to rise due to decreased government regulation and implementation of AI. Inflation is expected to ratchet lower in 2026 supported by the fact that crude oil prices are currently below $60 a barrel and increasing supply should keep prices below $70. This implies that price-to-earnings multiples should remain stable or move higher. The trailing PE multiple of the S&P 500 index has hovered around 26 times for most of the last twelve months and we do not expect this to change. If we apply the current 26 times PE multiple to our earnings forecast of $315, we get an S&P 500 target of 8190, which represents a gain of 18% in 2026. It is worth noting that the trailing PE in 2000 reached 29-30 before the equity market peaked.

In sum, there are many reasons to be bullish about equities in 2026, and solid earnings growth is the strongest factor. But no market is without risks. The Supreme Court is yet to rule on the legality of tariffs, and this has been core to the Trump administration’s economic policy. The rising cost of healthcare is a hardship for many households, and we see no sign that Congress is looking to tackle the problems related to Obamacare. And finally, the job market displayed signs of weakness at the end of the year. Declining employment is the biggest risk factor for the 2026 economy. Nevertheless, this year has the potential to be another great year for economic activity, corporate earnings, and investors.

Gail Dudack, Chief Strategist

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