US Strategy Weekly: Wash Your Hands

Yesterday the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus to be a global pandemic. At 9 pm last night President Trump announced a 30-day travel ban with Europe. This combination suggests a recession might already be in place in Europe and this could easily hurt the US economy.

Last night I spoke to a doctor from the Mayo Clinic. She indicated that the hospital is expecting the spread of the virus to rise dramatically over the next two weeks. The reason for this is that coronavirus is a new virus, and no one has immunity. Statistically a normal person with the flu might infect 1.7 new people, but a coronavirus victim appears to infect 2.5 people. A coronavirus-infected person is symptom free for 3 to 5 days and is contagious during this time. While the normal flu virus can live on tabletops and other surfaces for two hours, the coronavirus can survive for two days or more. The reason some experts are suggesting staying six feet away from others (social distancing) is that the virus appears to infect an area three feet around someone with coronavirus. And finally, the fever that accompanies the coronavirus could reach 104 degrees and have symptoms of pneumonia in some cases. These are the factors that make it more deadly for the elderly and those with compromised immune systems.

She added that there is no need to panic and to a large extent this is much like a very bad flu; but in coming weeks and months it is important that everyone protect themselves by regularly washing their hands with plain soap and water for 20 seconds. The elderly and those with compromised immune systems should consider social distancing or perhaps self-quarantining.

Given what we know today, it is likely that the coronavirus epidemic will become much worse in the next two weeks. In the interim, we should expect the financial markets to remain under pressure.

The positive in the current situation is that this is a medical crisis and not a financial crisis. The 2008 crisis triggered systemic risk in the global banking systems. Had a liquidity crisis ensued it could have spiraled out of control. This is not true today; our financial system is well capitalized. In addition, President Trump has indicated that he will recommend to Congress that small and medium sized companies affected by the epidemic be offered credit during this period and employees suspended due to the crisis should continue to be paid. The US economy demonstrated good momentum up until the end of February and once this medical crisis is over it should spring back quickly. However, in the near term there are many unknowns. Financial markets handle bad news well, but they handle unknowns poorly.

In times of great uncertainty, we measure the worst-case scenario with trailing SPX operating earnings. Earlier this week we wrote: “If we measure downside risk using the average PE of 15.6 and SPX’s 2019 earnings of $158, we find a low-risk valuation target of SPX 2465. Note: this is 9.8% below this week’s intraday low of SPX 2734. Also supporting the equity market is the fact that the SPX dividend yield is now 152 basis points above the 10-year Treasury yield. This is the highest spread since March 1955.”

The bottom line is everyone should protect themselves and their families by being wise in terms of socializing and washing their hands frequently throughout the day with simple soap and water.

Regulation AC Analyst Certification
I, Gail Dudack, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific views contained in this report.

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

RATINGS DEFINITIONS:

Sectors/Industries:
“Overweight”: Overweight relative to S&P Index weighting
“Neutral”: Neutral relative to S&P Index weighting
“Underweight”: Underweight relative to S&P Index weighting

Other Disclosures
This report has been written without regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient, and should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. The report is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. The report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as being accurate, nor is it a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and Dudack Research Group division of Wellington Shields & Co. LLC. (DRG/Wellington) is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. Options, derivative products, and futures are not suitable for all investors, and trading in these instruments is considered risky. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and yield from securities, if any, may fluctuate as a security’s price or value changes. Accordingly, an investor may receive back less than originally invested. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related instrument mentioned in this report.

DRG/Wellington relies on information barriers, such as “Chinese Walls,” to control the flow of information from one or more areas of DRG/Wellington into other areas, units, divisions, groups or affiliates. DRG/Wellington accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.

The content of this report is aimed solely at institutional investors and investment professionals. To the extent communicated in the U.K., this report is intended for distribution only to (and is directed only at) investment professionals and high net worth companies and other businesses of the type set out in Articles 19 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. This report is not directed at any other U.K. persons and should not be acted upon by any other U.K. person. Moreover, the content of this report has not been approved by an authorized person in accordance with the rules of the U.K. Financial Services Authority, approval of which is required (unless an exemption applies) by Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.

Additional information will be made available upon request.

©2020. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the written permission of Dudack Research Group division of Wellington Shields & Co. LLC. The Company specifically prohibits the re-distribution of this report, via the internet or otherwise, and accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

US Strategy Weekly: Monitoring the Sell Off

The DJIA’s 1,031.61-point decline on Monday was followed by an 879.44-point decline on Tuesday, leaving the DJIA 8.4% below its recent all-time high of 29,551.42 made on February 12th. The SPX is currently 7.6% below its record high; while the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 indices are 8.7% and 9.7%, respectively, below their recent peaks. In short, the sell-off has been sharp and severe, but it does not yet qualify as a “correction” which we define as a drop of 10% or more in the indices. And we remind readers that the intensity of this week’s decline is actually positive for the longer-term outlook since moves that are counter to the major trend tend to be the more dramatic.

Earlier this week we noted that Monday’s sell-off was a 91% down day and that these extreme readings are rare but tend to appear in a series. In Tuesday’s market, 89% of the day’s volume was in declining shares, which was not quite a 90% down day, but still extreme. In the next few days and weeks, we will be monitoring the market closely to see if a 90% up day appears. A 90% up day would be favorable since these readings have historically marked the reversal of selling pressure and suggest the worst of the decline is over.

It may surprise investors that our 25-day up/down volume oscillator closed at negative 2.81 on Tuesday, which is still above the negative 3.0 level that defines an oversold reading. This oscillator is apt to become oversold in coming sessions; and if it does it would be the first oversold reading since December 2018. We will be monitoring this indicator as well since oversold readings should be short in duration in a bull market cycle. For comparison, the December 2018 oversold reading lasted for nearly 13 consecutive trading sessions.

As a reminder, December 24, 2018 was a cyclical low that ended an 18.8% decline in the DJIA and a 19.8% decline in the SPX. The intense December 2018 selloff was the result of unknowns tied to fears of Fed tightening and rising US/China trade tensions. Economists were forecasting a US recession as a result of rising interest rates and a global trade war. The current environment is different. Although the sell-off is also due to unknowns, the coronavirus is not expected to trigger a US recession.

And finally, this week’s decline has carried the DJIA and the Russell 2000 index slightly below their respective 200-day moving averages. The SPX and Nasdaq Composite indices remain slightly above their 200-day MA’s. Most analysts view 200-day moving averages as good substitutes for long-term trendlines and we would point out that 200-day MA’s are normally tested and retested during a bull market cycle. Technicians often use a 2% rule for the 200-day moving average and consider a “successful” test one that does not fall more than 2% below this benchmark. In short, these moving averages are being tested this week. See page 2.

All in all, we believe the market should begin to stabilize at, or slightly below, current levels as it awaits more news about the spread of the epidemic and the possibility of a vaccine. If we are correct, this should be an opportune time to refine and upgrade portfolios and look for longer-term buying opportunities. We would still avoid travel-related sectors.

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1Q 2020: Corona Fallout

As news broke of a viral epidemic in China, global markets fell sharply, and analysts struggled to assess the economic fallout. The current statistics of the virus are staggering with over 6,000 cases of the coronavirus found in 17 countries, 132 confirmed deaths, and known cases of human-to-human transmission seen in four countries. China has locked down 15 cities, including the epicenter Wuhan, and is quarantining a population of nearly 60 million people in an attempt to stop the spread of the disease. The US and other nations are screening passengers arriving from China, particularly from Wuhan; while Hong Kong and some Russian provinces intend to close their borders with China entirely. There are five confirmed cases in the US, with an additional 100 people being tested in 26 states. Although the incubation period is still under study, the good news is that scientists and doctors have been able to define the coronavirus genome and believe it is more similar to influenza than SARS. This is very promising since influenza has a substantially lower mortality rate than SARS. Equally important, the 2003 SARS experience has provided a guideline for countries on containment methods and the process needed to develop a testing kit and vaccine.

After a dramatic sell-off in response to the crisis, stock prices rebounded, but investors remain concerned about the longer-term ramifications of this outbreak. The crisis may be too young to quantify, but in our opinion most modern-day epidemics are “economically” similar to natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes and fires. There is a sharp negative economic impact in the short run as normal economic activity grinds to a halt, but the economy tends to rebound and recover what it lost during the crisis in subsequent quarters. And in most all circumstances, the economic trend that was in place prior to the epidemic or disaster, resumes once the crisis abates.

The measures being taken to control the spread of the coronavirus suggest the impact of this crisis will be contained primarily to China and other parts of Asia. However, since China is the second largest economy in the world and is also a major manufacturer and supplier to many industries, the longer the crisis continues the greater the fallout could be on the global supply chain. Nonetheless, the biggest near-term economic impact is expected to be seen in airlines, hotels, casinos and energy stocks due to canceled travel plans. But business and leisure travel should resume once the epidemic is in check. In sum, the epidemic is apt to have a significant impact on China in the first quarter and a more modest impact on the global economy. 

Earnings are Crucial
We believe fourth quarter earnings season could soon overshadow the coronavirus as a market influence. There are 141 S&P 500 companies reporting this week and we expect the impact of the virus will be a major topic on earnings conference calls. To date, 68% of the companies that reported have exceed expectations, but it is earnings guidance regarding the first quarter that will have the biggest impact on earnings growth expectations for 2020. In that regard, this week’s earnings report from Apple Inc. (AAPL – $317.69) is quite encouraging. Apple is a high PE growth stock with a large exposure to China in terms of both production and customers. However, not only did Apple’s current quarter beat holiday revenue expectations and consensus earnings estimates, but the company announced revenue forecasts for the quarter ending in March that exceeded current analysts’ estimates. CEO Tim Cook told reporters that due to the coronavirus the company was using a wider range than normal for its quarterly guidance, but Apple has the flexibility to use suppliers outside of the Wuhan area if necessary and its current revenue estimates include the delayed start of Chinese factories after the Lunar New Year holiday and reduced hours at many of its Chinese stores. This is good news and it bodes well for technology earnings in general for 2020.

Fed on Hold
This week marks the first FOMC meeting of the year and we expect the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold. In large part, the current economy is the perfect combination of “not too hot” and “not too cold.” Inflation has been well contained in recent years which means there is no pressure for the Fed to raise rates. The economy is also sufficiently robust that monetary stimulus is not required. However, it is noteworthy that the Fed has been expanding its balance sheet for a number of months. The Fed has stated that this is due to an increase in global demand for US dollars and in order to keep the fed funds rate stable the Fed has had to supply US banks with more liquidity. To do this, the Fed has been buying Treasury bills and short-term Treasuries in the open market and its balance sheet has grown. According to the Fed, this is a temporary change to its longer-term strategy of normalizing its balance sheet. But in terms of the impact on the banking system it is stimulus.

Brexit is Here
This week also includes the formal exit of the UK from the European Union. January 31, 2020 will also mark the start of an 11-month transition period during which the UK will follow all member guidelines while it begins the process of creating new regulations with the EU on trade, security issues, legal rights, data sharing, fishing water rights, aviation standards, electrical and power supplies and the licensing and regulation of medicines. Many are skeptical about the outlook for the British economy after Brexit, but we believe the UK may fare much better than most experts expect. In fact, we believe the UK could begin to rebound now that the uncertainty of Brexit is over, and the country has the ability to control its own economic destiny. If we are correct, this would be a positive for the global economy. 

2020 Review
Despite the killing of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani, the impeachment of President Donald Trump, the downgrade of global growth forecasts by the International Monetary Fund and the coronavirus outbreak, we see no reason to change our outlook for 2020. Our SPX target of 3300 is unchanged in the near term, but we remind readers that our valuation model allows for the possibility of SPX 3500 later in the year. However, it is has been our view that to move the equity market substantially above SPX 3300 it would require greater earnings confidence and more political clarity. Both could materialize later in the year. Meanwhile, our bullish long-term view is supported by a strong economy that includes record low unemployment, solid wage growth in excess of 3% year-over-year, near record high consumer confidence, strengthening household balance sheets and renewed vigor in the housing market. All these factors will support equity prices in 2020.

From a technical perspective, this pullback appears to be a normal and healthy pause in a bull market cycle. The indices continue to trade above key support levels and the NYSE cumulative advance decline line made a record high on January 17 in line with the record highs in the indices. In short, this suggests that the bull market remains intact and pullbacks represent buying opportunities.

Gail M. Dudack
Market Strategist

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Disclosure: The information herein has been prepared by Dudack Research Group (“DRG”), a division of Wellington Shields & Co. The material is based on data from sources considered to be reliable; however, DRG does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information. It is published for informational purposes only and should not be used as the primary basis of investment decisions. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security. The opinions and estimates expressed reflect the current judgement of DRG and are subject to change without notice. Actual results may differ from any forward-looking statements. This letter is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the specific needs of any person or entity.
This communication is intended solely for use by Wellington Shields clients. The recipient agrees not to forward or copy the information to any other person without the express written consent of DRG.
Copyright © Dudack Research Group, 2020.
Wellington Shields is a member of FINRA and SIPC

US Strategy Weekly: Emotional Roller Coaster

A week ago, the world was on edge after the US took out Iranian Major General Soleimani in a drone strike at the Baghdad airport. Luckily Iran’s retaliation was minor and the political uproar that followed this bold and unforeseen event seems to have dissipated. Nevertheless, the first few weeks of 2020 have been an emotional roller coaster for investors, and we believe the year will continue to be marked by more unexpected political incidents. The predictable narratives are the Democratic primary election, the presidential election and Brexit; but these are only the obvious ones. Investors should stay on their toes while keeping a solid focus on fundamentals. 

Currently the financial press is dominated by more mundane economic stories such as the content of this week’s Chinese-US phase one trade deal and the positive earnings results reported by several large US banks. JPMorgan Chase (JPM – $138.80) reported a 9% increase in revenues in its fourth quarter. Citigroup (C – $81.91) reported a 7% increase. Chase reported their credit card, merchant services and auto revenue surged $6.3 billion or 9% at year end, with credit card loans up 8%. Citi beat profit estimates due to a jump in trading revenue and strong credit card sales. These revenue and earnings increases paint a favorable picture for fourth quarter GDP which will be released at the end of this month. Economists will get another clue to fourth quarter activity when December’s retail sales are released later this week. The consensus is looking for a 0.4% month-over-month gain in total sales versus the 0.2% recorded in November. Anything stronger would be an excellent sign that the consumer is doing better than expected. Wall Street is forecasting GDP growth of 1.6% in the fourth quarter, but it is worth noting that the consensus has been too pessimistic all year. The combination of a stronger-than-consensus fourth quarter and a signed phase one US-China trade deal could set the stage for a big positive surprise in the first quarter of 2020. 

TARGET TWEAKING 

In our OUTLOOK FOR 2020 (December 18, 2019) we noted that our SPX earnings forecast of $184 and our price target of SPX 3300 could prove too conservative. We are not surprised that equities are closing in on our SPX 3300 target this week. Yet since it is, we should remind readers that the top of our valuation model’s predicted range allows for a much higher target of SPX 3500 by December 2020. But SPX 3500 would require a perfect combination of strong earnings, low inflation, an accommodating Fed, and no upsetting political or geopolitical events. And while this is not impossible, we believe it is likely that the SPX 3300 level becomes upside resistance in the near term. Even so a signed trade deal, better than expected fourth quarter SPX earnings and a GDP report of 2% or more for 4Q19, could lead us to raise our target in coming weeks. 

A FEDERAL RESERVE ON HOLD 

Recent data releases suggest the Federal Reserve should be on hold for the foreseeable future. Employment in December was healthy, but not particularly strong. The 145,000 increase in payrolls was well below the 6-month average of 188,500 new jobs per month. And while the unemployment rate fell fractionally, it still rounded to 3.5%, or unchanged from November. Average weekly earnings for total private employees rose 2.3% YOY, down from 2.8% YOY in November. Average weekly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees rose 2.4% YOY, down from 2.8% YOY in November. 2222 

Our favorite employment statistics are the annual growth rates in the number of people employed. In December, employment increased 1.4% YOY in the establishment survey and 1.3% YOY in the household survey. Both of these gains were slightly below their respective long-term average growth rates. Still, it is difficult to criticize these growth rates since the current expansion is now 10 ½ years old. Slow and steady is usually a better long-term trend than fast and extreme. Over 2.1 million jobs were created in 2019 and the number of unemployed workers receiving unemployment insurance fell by 533,000. These are all favorable numbers; but in our view, the most impressive statistics in December’s job report were not the headline data points. The percentage of those currently not in the labor force but wanting a job fell from 5.3% in December 2018 to 4.8% in December, after hitting a record low of 4.6% in October 2019. Discouraged workers, or those out of work who feel they will not be able to find work, fell to 277,000 in December, the lowest level since September 2007. These latter data points suggest the job market has definitely become healthier in 2019. See pages 3 and 4. 

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell from 104.7 in November to 102.7 in December. This decline reversed some of the gains seen in the prior two months, yet the index remains generally strong. There were small declines in plans for capital expenditures, employment expansion, job openings, compensation increases, general expansion, and price increases. But there were small increases in the percentage of respondents that expect the economy and real sales to improve in the next twelve months. See page 5. 

December’s inflation data also supports the Federal Reserve’s neutral standing. December’s not-seasonally-adjusted CPI index showed a 2.3% YOY rise, which was just slightly higher than the 2.1% YOY gain seen in November. Meanwhile, core CPI was unchanged from November’s 2.3% YOY pace. Energy prices fell 0.8% for the month but rose 3.4% YOY. Food was up 0.1% for the month and up 1.8% YOY. See page 6. Of the largest components of the CPI, transportation, with a 16.4% weighting, tends to be the most volatile due to the erratic price of oil. For example, transportation prices rose 1.9% YOY in December after falling for three consecutive months. But medical care, with an 8.8% weighting, is the most concerning. Medical care had the largest year-over-year increase, up 4.6% YOY in December. The major driver of recent medical care inflation is health insurance, where prices have been increasing 20% YOY or more for three consecutive months. See page 7. 

Conversely, housing, which carries a 42.3% weight in the index, has been decelerating from a 3.0% pace to 2.6%. This has helped to dampen inflation trends. Prices for rent of primary residence, owners’ equivalent rent and household furnishings and operations are all slowing. This is favorable for consumers and should help keep headline and core inflation indices rising modestly between 2.0% and 2.3% for 2020. See page 8. 

TECHNICAL INDICATORS HOLD STRONG AND STEADY 

The 25-day up/down volume oscillator is 2.87 (preliminarily) and neutral after being in overbought territory for 11 of the last 15 consecutive trading sessions. This overbought reading, which began in December, represented the sixth consecutive overbought reading of 2019. Strong and repetitive overbought readings reveal solid and persistent buying pressure and are a classic characteristic of a bull market cycle. In short, this is a positive sequence for this indicator. See page 11. Breadth data continues to be strong and favorable. The 10-day average of new highs rose to an average of 343 this week, while the average number of daily new lows fell to 35. The NYSE cumulative advance decline line recorded a new high on January 14, which confirms the new highs recorded by most of the popular averages last week. See page 12. Equally important are the lack of extremes in sentiment. As of January 8, AAII bullish sentiment fell 4.1% to 33.1% and bearish sentiment rose 8.0% to 29.9%. The 8-week bull/bear spread remains neutral. The ISE Sentiment index which measures option sentiment is also neutral. In sum, sentiment indicators are not giving early warning signals of a peak in the market.

December’s payrolls increased by 145,000 workers, previous months were revised lower by 13,000 and the unemployment rate fell fractionally, but still rounded to 3.5%. See below. Employment grew 1.4% YOY in the establishment survey and 1.3% YOY in the household. Both of these paces were slightly below the long-term average employment growth rate; however, the job market remains robust considering the expansion is currently 10 ½ years old. 

Regulation AC Analyst Certification 

I, Gail Dudack, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific views contained in this report. 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

RATINGS DEFINITIONS: 

Sectors/Industries: 

“Overweight”: Overweight relative to S&P Index weighting 

“Neutral”: Neutral relative to S&P Index weighting 

“Underweight”: Underweight relative to S&P Index weighting 

Other Disclosures 

This report has been written without regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient, and should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. The report is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. The report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as being accurate, nor is it a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and Dudack Research Group division of Wellington Shields & Co. LLC. (DRG/Wellington) is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. Options, derivative products, and futures are not suitable for all investors, and trading in these instruments is considered risky. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and yield from securities, if any, may fluctuate as a security’s price or value changes. Accordingly, an investor may receive back less than originally invested. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related instrument mentioned in this report. 

DRG/Wellington relies on information barriers, such as “Chinese Walls,” to control the flow of information from one or more areas of DRG/Wellington into other areas, units, divisions, groups or affiliates. DRG/Wellington accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this report. 

The content of this report is aimed solely at institutional investors and investment professionals. To the extent communicated in the U.K., this report is intended for distribution only to (and is directed only at) investment professionals and high net worth companies and other businesses of the type set out in Articles 19 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. This report is not directed at any other U.K. persons and should not be acted upon by any other U.K. person. Moreover, the content of this report has not been approved by an authorized person in accordance with the rules of the U.K. Financial Services Authority, approval of which is required (unless an exemption applies) by Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. 

Additional information will be made available upon request. 

©2020. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the written permission of Dudack Research Group division of Wellington Shields & Co. LLC. The Company specifically prohibits the re-distribution of this report, via the internet or otherwise, and accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. 

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2019 Fourth Quarter Review – Welcome to the New Year

What a difference a year makes. A year ago market volatility, an escalating trade war, a hit to capital spending, and an inverted yield curve seemed to be moving simmering concerns about a global recession toward a full boil. Low inflation, however, gave the Federal Reserve and other central banks room to maneuver. The central banks eased monetary policies, liquidity surged with real U.S. GDP growth stable at roughly 2%, and the equity markets closed at an all-time high.

As we enter the new year, some uncertainties have been cleaned up—and replaced by new ones. As we asserted would be the case in our April 2019 letter, predictions of an imminent recession proved to be inaccurate.  We also have more clarity as a result of a treaty soon to be signed between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, a Phase I agreement with China, and a decisive vote on Brexit. That said, the possibility of making further progress with China remains unpredictable, impeachment proceedings and elections loom, and a new threat of conflict in the Middle East has emerged.

A U.S. soft landing, not a recession, remains our best forecast for 2020. First-quarter GDP will undoubtedly be weak in the U.S. as the announced Boeing production cuts reduce growth. We assume the Boeing hit to the economy will be temporary and the remainder of 2020 has enough strength to avoid further deterioration. Consensus is that GDP growth should again come in around 2% for the year, corporate profits should rise 6-to-8%, accelerating as the year goes on. The global economy outside the U.S. already shows some signs of picking up. Global bond yields are moving higher with Chinese industrial production and retail sales increasing year-over-year in November.

From an equity standpoint, the defining moment for us was the complete reversal of Federal Reserve policy from tightening to one of accommodation and a fresh injection of liquidity. This policy would also appear to be global with China’s central bank lowering its reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, effective January 6th. Easy money, rising profits, relatively full employment, and low inflation are the ingredients for rising equity prices, and we would expect further progress in the new year. Our biggest fear would be a rise in inflation which could cause central banks to reverse their current monetary policy.

We wish all our clients and friends a healthy, happy, and prosperous new year.

January 2020

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From black to white … in the world of swans.

DJIA: 28,957

One can only hope it’s back to business, literally. Business doesn’t seem so bad if the stock market is the guide it’s supposed to be. While last year we had to wake up to the threat of new tariffs most days, it would be pleasant if this year we don’t have to wake up to new attacks somewhere. No doubt plenty of trouble may still come from the Middle East, but the Tuesday-Wednesday events seem to mark Phase I of a peace deal. Now the stock market can go along its merry way seemingly toward some euphoric binge. Already in a bubble for more than a year, the NASDAQ managed to further surge 76% from October 7, 1999, until its March 10 peak in 2000. As it happens, back then the Federal Reserve flooded the market to prevent any disruption from the “Y2K” bug. The moves it has made in the last few months following the September seizure of the repo market are proportionately just as big, according to Bloomberg’s John Authers.

Speaking of 2000, some measures of sentiment are back to those happy days. Options are one thing, leveraged options quite another. Speculative activity in leveraged instruments has risen dramatically in the last month, with one of the biggest spikes since 2000. Meanwhile, those ETFs protecting against a fall are losing assets. During dynamic uptrends, traders tend to pile into leveraged funds faster than they have the inverse funds, according to SentimenTrader.com. Over the past month, the long funds have gained more than 15%, while the short funds have lost more than 10%. Every time since 2010 spreads were this wide, returns weren’t all that bad—after all, the trend was up. Short term, however, the next 1-to-3 months, the S&P’s median was below a random return. We could look at call buying alone and get pretty much the same picture. These sentiment measures are simply telling us what we already know—things have gotten frothy. Sentiment gives you an insight into risk, but it’s not a timing tool. When those A/D numbers change, then worry, and maybe a lot.

Momentum numbers like the advance/declines still have the market’s back. Another measure we favor is stocks above their 200-day moving average, that is, stocks in medium-term uptrends. For the S&P, this measure nudged above 80% a few days ago, its highest level in a year. So much for the “unwind” in momentum characteristic of bull market tops. As is often the case, when it comes to all stocks on the NYSE, they’re lagging a bit at a recent peak of only 68%. We take this to mean the large-cap stocks of the S&P simply are outperforming NYSE stocks taken as a whole—not unusual. As long as those A/D numbers hold together, we don’t see this as an important divergence, and hopefully one soon corrected. When coming from an oversold level as it did last year, a move above 60% of NYSE stocks above their 200- day has been followed by above-average returns in the S&P. Spikes to 70% marked new bull markets in 1995, 2003, 2009, 2013 and 2016.

One technician’s top is another’s consolidation. We’ve worried for some time just what those FANG stocks were up to, especially Facebook (218) and Amazon (1901). Just two weeks ago Amazon looked particularly risky, but managed to dramatically move higher on 12/16. This kind of surge of itself often means higher prices, moving the stock, as it did, above some four months of trading. The stock, like Netflix (336), has gone nowhere since the end of 2018, so the consolidation/top issue remains unresolved. It is, however, much easier to give the stocks the benefit of the doubt. Meanwhile, both Facebook and Google (1420) have made it pretty clear their respite since 2018 was just a consolidation. On the whole, we can see all four on their way back to the good old days, even if not quite the FANG of old. If the volatility here seems a bit too much, we would note that over 40% of the Communications Services ETF (XLC-55) is Facebook and Alphabet.

The war hedges—Gold, Oil, Defense stocks—came undone on Wednesday. Gold and the Defense stocks have particularly good charts and may have to settle-in, so to speak, but should be fine. Energy is trying, and trying in more ways than one. As for the hedge aspect, clearly fears eased Wednesday, but when isn’t the devil dancing in the Middle East? To assassinate the second most powerful person in Iran seems to have taken things to a new level. For now, the market agrees with Trump—all is well. Wednesday was the first time in the history of the S&P futures that they fell to a multi-week low and rallied to a 52-week high in the same session—Tuesday night and Wednesday. Lesser reversals generally led to higher prices. The positive seasonality will begin to fade, some prices are becoming stretched and sentiment is over the top. The Advance/Decline Index, however, just hit a new high—not how markets get into trouble.

Frank D. Gretz

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US Strategy Weekly: 2020 vs 1991

The new year began with a US drone strike at the Baghdad airport which killed Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who had greeted him at the airport. To the extent that Iran retaliates and whether this is the start of an escalating conflict in the Middle East is a huge unknown. But it certainly could become the overriding issue of 2020. Still, it is important to note that history shows that stocks have performed surprisingly well during military conflicts. For example, equity prices rose in 1991 even though the US began a military operation – Operation Desert Storm – in January to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait. (An interesting connection between 1991 and the current operation is that Muhandis had been labeled a terrorist and sentenced to death by a Kuwaiti court for the 1983 bombings of the American and French embassies in Kuwait.) 

Another significant factor to consider with regard to the Middle East is that the US has recently become the world’s largest energy producer. In 2018 the US delivered 18% of the world’s total oil production exceeding Saudi Arabia’s 12%. In November, the US had a petroleum trade surplus of $0.8 billion, the highest on record. This is an important difference between 1991 and 2020 since the US is now a greater force in global energy production, has become a more energy efficient economy and currently benefits economically from the rising price of oil. A rise in oil prices could also increase corporate earnings for energy companies and boost S&P 500 earnings. All of this could explain why the US equity market has performed better since the drone attack than many would have expected. 

WHAT HAS CHANGED? 

Although the geopolitical landscape is quite different today from when we published our 2020 outlook in December, there is little that we would change in our forecasts. The SPX is trading at 20 times trailing operating earnings this week, the same multiple as seen in mid-December. Our earnings forecast of $184 is likely to be too conservative, particularly if energy sector earnings rebound more than expected in 2020. And in turn, we believe our SPX price target of 3300 (PE multiple of 17.9 times) could prove to be too conservative. However, given the uncertainty that the Middle East now poses, it is possible that the SPX 3300 level will be a hurdle in the intermediate-term, or at least until the risk of conflict subsides. Conversely, sell offs related to the Middle East should be viewed as longer-term buying opportunities. As we go to print there are reports that there are rocket attacks on multiple US facilities in Iraq and US equity futures are down 1%. 

ASSESSING ECONOMIC STRENGTH 

The majority of recent data releases indicate that economic activity is improving. November’s trade data pointed to a goods-only trade deficit that declined 5.8% to $63.9 billion and a total trade deficit that fell 8.2% to $43.1 billion. Both of these monthly figures are the lowest deficits recorded since October 2016. The petroleum surplus mentioned earlier, contributed to the declines in deficits. Most importantly, the trade deficit as a percentage of GDP is ratcheting lower which means it could be less of a drag on GDP in future quarters. Last but far from least, trade with China continues to decline and Mexico and Canada remain our number one and two trading partners. See page 3. 

One of the most promising segments of the US economy is housing. Pending home sales – a leading indicator of single-family home, condo and co-op sales – rebounded in November despite a shrinking 2222 

level of available inventory. This report was accompanied by large jumps in building permits and housing starts, which are now at their highest levels in twelve years. See page 4. Since pending home sales are based upon signed real estate contracts, November’s report suggests that existing home sales and prices should rise in the first quarter of 2020. See page 5. 

Given this housing backdrop it is not surprising that home builder confidence is also rising. In November, the NAHB housing market index was approaching levels last seen in 1999. This is good news for the stock market. Housing is an important part of the US economy and the trickle-down effect from new and existing home sales is influential to many other parts of the economy. Therefore, it is not surprising that the NAHB housing market index and the SPX are strongly correlated. As seen on page 6, with the exception of 2006 and 2007, homebuilder confidence has moved in close step with stock prices. In fact, the weakness in the NAHM index in 2006-2007 was an excellent, although early, predictor of the mortgage crisis that led to the financial crisis in 2008. 

In our OUTLOOK FOR 2020 (December 18, 2019) we outlined the strengths we see in the household sector which included a healthy job market, solid gains in real wages, record household net worth, homeowners’ equity of 64% (the best since 1991), and debt service ratios that remain at or near 40 year lows. Recent data on personal income and personal expenditures also point to a strong consumer base. In November, personal income grew 4.85% year-over-year and personal disposable income rose 4.6% year-over-year. And despite the increase in the CPI from 1.8% to 2.1% in November, our calculation for real personal disposable income showed an increase from 2.4% to 2.5%. In short, purchasing power continues to improve. The cyclicality in personal consumption is another encouraging factor for the US economy. As seen on page 7, PCE tends to decline and hit a low every two to four years. There were cyclical slumps in personal consumption in 2009, 2013, 2015 and in 2019. However, the slump in 2019 is now a good omen for 2020 since it implies there should be a rebound ahead. 

Not everything is bright for the US economy. The ISM manufacturing index fell from 48.1 in November to 47.2 in December, recording its third consecutive decline and its fifth consecutive reading below 50. The manufacturing sector continues to be in the doldrums. Conversely, the ISM nonmanufacturing index rose from 53.9 to 55.0 in November. The employment survey in each ISM series edged lower in December but since the unemployment rate is low, we are less concerned about these employment indices than we were. More importantly, the nonmanufacturing employment index was 55.2 in November, a level that indicates expansion. Keep in mind that nonmanufacturing represents 80% of the US workforce. See page 8. 

TECHNICAL INDICATORS REMAIN BULLISH 

One of the most bullish indicators we monitor is the 25-day up/down volume oscillator. This indicator is an excellent barometer of underlying buying and selling pressure and it helps us determine if a bull or bear market is strong, getting stronger or running out of steam. The oscillator is currently 2.84 and neutral this week but it was in overbought territory for 7 of 8 consecutive trading sessions at year end. This represented the sixth consecutive overbought reading (without an intervening oversold condition) in 2019 and is distinctly bullish. The cumulative advance decline line made an all-time high on January 6, which confirmed the new highs seen in the indices on January 2. And since the equity market has been setting a series of record highs, we plan to monitor sentiment indicators more closely. Sentiment indicators tend to be an early warning system for extended bull market cycles since extreme bullishness usually accompanies bull market peaks. The good news today is that sentiment indicators are not recording high levels of optimism. The AAII bullish sentiment reading for January 1 was 37.2%, down 4.7% from the previous week. Bearish sentiment rose 0.3% to 21.9% in the same week. The ISE Sentiment index edged toward positive territory but was also in neutral territory this week. In sum, there are no extremes in the technical arena that would suggest that the bull market advance is over. All in all, this suggests that future market weakness should provide investors with a favorable buying opportunity. 

Regulation AC Analyst Certification 

I, Gail Dudack, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific views contained in this report. 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

RATINGS DEFINITIONS: 

Sectors/Industries: 

“Overweight”: Overweight relative to S&P Index weighting 

“Neutral”: Neutral relative to S&P Index weighting 

“Underweight”: Underweight relative to S&P Index weighting 

Other Disclosures 

This report has been written without regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient, and should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. The report is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. The report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as being accurate, nor is it a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and Dudack Research Group division of Wellington Shields & Co. LLC. (DRG/Wellington) is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. Options, derivative products, and futures are not suitable for all investors, and trading in these instruments is considered risky. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and yield from securities, if any, may fluctuate as a security’s price or value changes. Accordingly, an investor may receive back less than originally invested. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related instrument mentioned in this report. 

DRG/Wellington relies on information barriers, such as “Chinese Walls,” to control the flow of information from one or more areas of DRG/Wellington into other areas, units, divisions, groups or affiliates. DRG/Wellington accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this report. 

The content of this report is aimed solely at institutional investors and investment professionals. To the extent communicated in the U.K., this report is intended for distribution only to (and is directed only at) investment professionals and high net worth companies and other businesses of the type set out in Articles 19 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. This report is not directed at any other U.K. persons and should not be acted upon by any other U.K. person. Moreover, the content of this report has not been approved by an authorized person in accordance with the rules of the U.K. Financial Services Authority, approval of which is required (unless an exemption applies) by Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. 

Additional information will be made available upon request. 

©2020. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the written permission of Dudack Research Group division of Wellington Shields & Co. LLC. The Company specifically prohibits the re-distribution of this report, via the internet or otherwise, and accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. 

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Turtle Dove … or Black Swan?

DJIA:  28,377

The trade war, impeachment, Brexit, all have had their moments, but none have proven the market’s undoing.  And so it goes.  The “knowns” rarely prove the problem, it’s those nasty unknowns.  The obvious catch is how to know the unknowns.  In some cases, the overall market sniffs out trouble and it shows up in breadth divergences and the like.  There is, however, a specific indicator designed to detect Black Swans called the SKEW.  What the SKEW measures, and what it is telling us now, is that traders are paying up for out-of-the-money Put options.  They’re buying insurance on what who knows, and they’re paying up for it.  Like the “Titanic Syndrome” and other esoteric measures, the SKEW has had its moments, but fortunately not that many.  Ironically, the Volatility Index, or VIX, a short-term measure of fear, is only around 12-13, well below the average of around 19 since 1990.

A Black Swan is a significant and market moving event.  Most important, it’s unforeseen.  That makes any prediction little more than a guess, other than it’s not where you’re looking.  And, indeed, that would describe most of the market’s problems, they’re never where you’re looking.  The impeachment, rather than a Black Swan, has proven a non-event.  Then, too, a conviction in the Senate might well qualify.  We’re thinking, however, a little further from home, specifically China.  It’s not our trouble with China, it’s trouble in China.  China’s financial system is struggling under the weight of an enormous borrowing spree.  Companies piled up plenty of debt as they expanded, as the world’s investors rushed to lend even more money.  Now defaults are rising, a sign the world’s No. 2 economy is feeling the stress from its worst slowdown in nearly three decades.  Fortunately for the rest of the world, that’s yet to show up in the China charts, so no worries for now.  That said, we’ll keep bird watching.

It has been a great year despite the lack of true believers, or maybe because of it.  Investors have fled funds this year despite the market’s performance.  That is among the reasons for optimism about next year—good years typically follow years with outflows.  Then there are the Wall Street strategists who are looking for only a 4% gain next year, their smallest projected gain in 20 years.  Historically they’ve proven a modestly good contrary indicator, much like fund outflows.  Following double-digit up years, the odds of being up the next are 85%, it’s as simple as that.  Earlier this week 7% of NYSE and NAZ stocks reached 12-month New Highs.  Last year at this time, 40% were at 12-month New Lows.  The Advance/Decline Index is at an all-time high—peaks here typically lead peaks in the market averages by 4-to-6 months.  It’s reasonable to worry that we may be borrowing something from next year, and at the start it could be true.  The end and start of years can be tricky, but there’s no reason to think next year won’t be another good one.

Many so-called long-term investors didn’t start that way.  They were poor short-term investors who didn’t sell.  The obvious key to long-term investing is to find stocks in long-term uptrends.  Even when it comes to short-term investing or trading, life is that much easier when you have the wind of that long-term uptrend at your back.  Still everyone likes to buy low, who doesn’t like a bargain?  They do come around, and in the context of long-term uptrends.  We’re thinking here of Home Depot (220) and McDonald’s (197).  Both have had a 30-point, or 10%-15% corrections, with barely a dent to their long-term uptrends.  Both also have patterns that have stabilized, MCD is even about to cross back above its 50-day moving average.  Even good companies have their problems, or their stocks simply fall out of favor.  More than a specific business, long-term uptrends more often than not are a reflection on management.

Seeing the light?  For most of the year we’ve seen how pessimistic individual investors have been, and how persistently so.  Given the myriad of reasons—trade war, impeachment, economic malaise—they were expecting the market to drop.  Historically, the market rarely does so when so many are expecting it.  It has taken a while, a historic high, but those investors finally may be beginning to believe.  The latest AAII survey shows bulls to bears above 67% for the first time in nine months.  While this may seem worrisome, it’s hardly so.  When it comes to individual investor or public sentiment, they are wrong at the extremes, but right in between.  We are, at worst, at the start of in between.  Meanwhile, if momentum trumps sentiment, the number of daily advancing issues has been 2000 or more each of the last 7 days, and 10 of the last 12.  It takes a lot of money to push up that many stocks.  When it’s finally all in, the numbers will change.

Frank D. Gretz

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The most wonderful time of the year… if often a little confusing.

DJIA:  28,132

Hedge funds don’t seem confused.  After being under-exposed for much of the year, in the past week there has been an abrupt change—equity funds are now carrying their highest exposure since the beginning of the year.  There must be something about “group-think,” because the record here isn’t altogether better than the general public.  It’s not a perfect indicator, but high levels of hedge fund exposure have tended to lead to below average future returns in the S&P, and vice versa.  In the meantime, the new-found religion here could be help to a name like Google (1350), and should help names like Microsoft (153) and Apple (271), which don’t really need much help.  Meanwhile, the confusing part of this time of year is the tendency for the downtrodden to rise again.  And pretty much synonymous with downtrodden is Energy, which is acting better.

Rotation is nothing new to this market, and the past week was no exception.  We’ve touted Health Care as a leadership group, which didn’t have its best week, though there were a couple of doubles in small Biotechs.  While the group covers an array of very different companies, taken as a whole more than 90% of Health Care stocks are above their 50-day moving average, the most of any sector.  A number like this says “overbought,” but as we’ve pointed out, overbought isn’t a bad thing.  As it happens, modestly overbought can be a bad thing in that it indicates only modest momentum.  Health Care has the kind of momentum consistent with trends that persist.  We are also impressed with this group considering what seems a difficult political backdrop.  On the good side of the rotation go-around, the recently dormant Semis, based on the Vaneck Vectors ETF (SMH-140), seem in the process of reasserting themselves.

At a basic level, technical analysis can be divided into two parts, momentum and sentiment, or investor psychology.  As has been the case for much of the year, momentum trumps sentiment.  Overbought doesn’t mean over, the trend is your friend, we’ll spare you the rest.  Meanwhile, sentiment has remained rather subdued and rightly so—trade war, impeachment, dubious economic numbers, and how about that Uber (29) and the other IPOs?  That said, momentum by some measures has itself been a bit dubious.  Despite the market’s stellar performance in 2019, for more than a year and a half, fewer than 60% of NYSE stocks have managed to move above their 200-day moving average.  This could be taken negatively and it has been a concern for us.  It’s not just the fewer than 60% above the 200-day versus new highs in the S&P, even 60% is below the 70% in 2016-2018.  That’s the picture of momentum unwinding—unwinding momentum is the picture of bull market tops.

We’ve learned not to make excuses for the indicators.  In the case of stocks above their 200-day, an excuse is hard to come by.  After all, the Advance/Decline Index is at a new all-time.  It’s a similar case as well if we adjust for price by using the QCHA, a measure of the percentage price change in stocks up versus down.  A possible explanation could be the rotation that we often mention.  Stocks don’t go down, but there are these rolling corrections in groups like the Semis.  The good side of that is it has kept most stocks from becoming too extended, and in that sense it has kept the market healthy.  You may miss the days when it was FANG and only FANG, but the balance now likely will prove more durable.  In an overall sense, moving to 60% of stocks above their 200-day is good.  Getting to 70% is the Holy Grail for durable uptrends.

The market has had a good year, up something like 26% in the S&P.  Then, too, were it a 15-month year, it would be up only about 9%—last year’s fourth quarter was that bad.  There are no perfect indicators, but the Advance/Decline Index also had a good year, and that after a prescient warning last year.  That most days most stocks go up is pretty much all you needed to know.  That’s unlikely to change in the New Year, which history suggests could be another good one.  Wall Street strategists are looking for only a 4% gain in 2020, their most pessimistic call in 20 years.  They have proven a modestly good contrary indicator.  Also, about $200 billion has come out of funds this year, small as a percent, but surprising in light of the market’s performance.  The record of good years after outflows is also good, especially when outflows occur in an up year.  The so close and yet so far trade deal seems one that has come down to groceries.  Still, it’s clearly something the market wants, if only to get it out of the way.

Frank D. Gretz

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US Strategy Weekly: A Notable Time

Historic Events

This week can be marked as historic with Democrats from the House of Representatives, led by House Leader Nancy Pelosi, announcing two articles of impeachment, abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, against President Trump. This was long anticipated. But in an odd act of timing, Leader Pelosi followed one hour later with a press conference indicating the House is likely to pass an amended and long-delayed USMCA trade deal. Earlier this week, The Washington Post exposed a confidential trove of government documents showing that, throughout an 18-year campaign, senior US officials failed to tell the truth about the war in Afghanistan, made pronouncements they knew were false and hid evidence from the press and the American public that the war had become unwinnable. In short, Washington DC is all abuzz.

This week will continue to be busy since it includes the December FOMC meeting, a December 12th UK parliamentary vote, the results of which could determine the fate of Brexit, EU monetary policy and the debut press conference of the new head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde. Key economic reports on the CPI, PPI, import and export prices and retail sales will also be released. We do not expect any change to monetary policy in December, so the key report of the week is apt to be November’s retail sales report. This release should have preliminary data for Black Friday sales, but it will not include Cyber Monday online sales which are reported to have totaled $9.4 billion, up nearly 19% YOY according to Adobe Analytics. Estimates for Black Friday sales are currently $7.4 billion. All in all, these retail sales numbers point to the start of a healthy holiday selling season and it bodes well for the fourth quarter economy.

Employment is Better than Expected

November’s payroll numbers also suggest the economy is doing better than many economists have been predicting. Job gains for the month surged to 266,000, their best performance since January, while revisions to the two prior months added 41, 000 more jobs. Although the reversal of October’s auto strike losses was expected to add 54,000 jobs to the month, payroll gains still exceeded 200,000 in November. This was an impressive increase since the usual holiday lift in retail payrolls failed to materialize. Employment gains in November were strongest in healthcare and professional and technical services. See page 3.

Our favorite job statistic is measuring year-over-year growth in both employment surveys. The establishment survey had a 1.47% YOY increase in jobs in November, slightly below its long-term average of 1.77%. The household survey had a 1.14% YOY increase in jobs, just under its long-term average of 1.5%. In fact, both surveys have exhibited below average growth for most of 2019, even though the pace of employment gains have been positive and steady. Yet slow and steady is much different from a sharp deceleration in the rate of job growth; deceleration is a typical precursor of a pending recession. But this is not a concern today. In the 12-months ended in November there have been 2.2 million new jobs created and this contributed to a 3.5% unemployment rate which matches September 2019. These are the lowest unemployment rates since the 3.4% reported in June 1969. See page 4.

November’s participation rate of 63.2% is only slightly above the September 2015 low of 62.4% and this lackluster performance is due to Baby Boomers leaving the labor force. Baby Boomer retirements mean this ratio is unlikely to improve in the years ahead. Conversely, the employment population ratio was 61% in November and has moved steadily higher since its July 2011 low of 58.2%. This is an indication of a strengthening labor market. The fact that the percentage of people who are not in the labor force but want a job was 4.7% in November, close to previous month’s all-time low of 4.6%, is another sign of a strong market. See page 5. Historically, a 3-month average of job gains or losses has had a strong correlation with consumer confidence. In November the 3-month average job gain rose from 189,330 to 205,000; confidence is also rising. This relationship has been stronger than that of the unemployment rate and GDP. See page 6. November’s average hourly earnings grew 3.7% YOY, an acceleration over the 3.4% YOY rate seen a year ago. Average weekly earnings rose 3.0% YOY in November which is down from the 3.4% YOY pace seen in November 2018. In sum, November marked a deceleration in the pace of weekly earnings growth, but the rate still well above the 2.2% YOY pace seen between 2011 and 2016. See page 7. Based upon this, it is no surprise that consumer confidence is on the rise.

Trade is Better than Expected

Trade data also points to fourth quarter strength. The trade deficit narrowed from $51.1 billion in September to $47.2 billion in October, the second consecutive monthly decline and the fourth decline in the past five months. On an annualized basis, the trade deficit is running at 4% of GDP versus the 4.25% of GDP recorded in 2018. See page 8. Most of this improvement in the deficit is the result of declining trade with China. The US trade deficit with China is running at 1.6% of GDP this year versus 2.04% in 2018. Some of this falloff with China is becoming a boon for other countries. Trade is expanding with countries in the European Union, Japan and Canada; but Mexico has been the biggest beneficiary of the trade war. Imports from Mexico are up 4.5% and exports have declined 2%, year-to-date. As a result, the trade deficit with Mexico is running at 0.48% of GDP versus the 0.39% seen in 2018. Another factor improving US trade is energy. This can be seen by the fact that in the first 10 months of 2019, the US is experiencing a $7.7 billion surplus with OPEC nations. See pages 9-11.

Technical Indicators Continue to be Strong

After strong advances from the mid-October lows to December’s record highs, the popular indices are consolidating this week. But trends remain favorable and indices are trading above all moving averages. The Russell 2000 index has been our biggest concern in 2019 since it has lagged the larger capitalization indices most of the year. However, the RUT has broken above the 1600 resistance level and it continues to hold above this level which is bullish. See page 13. The 25-day up/down volume oscillator is at 0.83 and is neutral this week. But the last reading in this indicator was a five-day overbought reading, the fifth such reading in 2019, which represents a bullish pattern of solid buying pressure. See page 14. Average daily new highs remain above 100 per day and average daily new lows remain below 100 per day, which is classically bullish. The NYSE cumulative advance decline line made an all-time high on November 27th confirming the new highs in the indices. And last, we are encouraged that sentiment indicators remain in neutral territory even as the market continues to climb to new heights. In short, there are no signs of excessive optimism that tends to mark major bull market peaks.

Summary

Economic data including reports on jobs, trade, sentiment, housing, and GDP continue to show a stellar US economy led by a consumer supported by the best job market in years. This bodes well for the fourth quarter economy and for earnings. We continue to believe that our 2020 SPX target of 3300 could prove to be conservative.

Next week we will publish our Outlook for 2020 on Wednesday December 18th.

November’s payroll gain of 266,000 jobs was strikingly strong even after adjusting for the 54,000 job increase attributed to the UAW settlement. Moreover, revisions added 41,000 jobs to the prior two months. The 6-month averages rose to 196,330 in the establishment survey and to 305,830 in the household survey.

Regulation AC Analyst Certification 

I, Gail Dudack, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific views contained in this report. 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

RATINGS DEFINITIONS: 

Sectors/Industries: 

“Overweight”: Overweight relative to S&P Index weighting 

“Neutral”: Neutral relative to S&P Index weighting 

“Underweight”: Underweight relative to S&P Index weighting 

Other Disclosures 

This report has been written without regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient, and should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. The report is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. The report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as being accurate, nor is it a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and Dudack Research Group division of Wellington Shields & Co. LLC. (DRG/Wellington) is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. Options, derivative products, and futures are not suitable for all investors, and trading in these instruments is considered risky. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and yield from securities, if any, may fluctuate as a security’s price or value changes. Accordingly, an investor may receive back less than originally invested. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related instrument mentioned in this report. 

DRG/Wellington relies on information barriers, such as “Chinese Walls,” to control the flow of information from one or more areas of DRG/Wellington into other areas, units, divisions, groups or affiliates. DRG/Wellington accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this report. 

The content of this report is aimed solely at institutional investors and investment professionals. To the extent communicated in the U.K., this report is intended for distribution only to (and is directed only at) investment professionals and high net worth companies and other businesses of the type set out in Articles 19 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. This report is not directed at any other U.K. persons and should not be acted upon by any other U.K. person. Moreover, the content of this report has not been approved by an authorized person in accordance with the rules of the U.K. Financial Services Authority, approval of which is required (unless an exemption applies) by Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. 

Additional information will be made available upon request. 

©2019. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the written permission of Dudack Research Group division of Wellington Shields & Co. LLC. The Company specifically prohibits the re-distribution of this report, via the internet or otherwise, and accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. 

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