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DJIA: 47,427
When good news is bad news… that’s bad news. Nvidia (NVDA – 180) reported good news last week, rallied sharply only to reverse when the market decided the news was too good. Too good meaning there’s too much spending on AI, the market’s new worry. And. so it goes, news doesn’t make the market, the market makes the news. Not that long ago the market would have taken the news as good and gone with it. Just as you don’t step in the same river twice, this isn’t the same market and Tech is a much more over-owned Tech. Tricky now is the damage in many cases, leaving recent strength the look of a bounce rather than a new uptrend. Admittedly it’s early to say, and recently the market has done well in Tech’s absence.
Seasonally this is a positive time of year, and through December 3 we are in the midst of one of the most positive nine-day periods of the year. Leadership is a bit confused, rather than bifurcated it’s more trifurcated. Tech like Broadcom (AVGO – 398) and Google (GOOG – 320) holding up, Nvidia and Oracle (ORCL – 205) not so much. Financials act better, even Regional Banks, likely on the lookout for a rate cut. For sure, Biotech and Healthcare generally are the leaders, and here there are many. The overall background, however, is not auspicious, with half of the NYSE stocks below their 200-day, that is, in downtrends. The recent A/D numbers suggest we could just go on like this, in this seasonally positive time of year.
Frank D. Gretz
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