New Address as of 10/4/24 — 60 Broad Street, 39th Floor, New York, NY 10004
DJIA: 52,553
What do we think of the market… that’s a trick question. It’s a trick question because there is no THE market. If by market you mean the market averages, these days they’re not the market as much as a collection of extended Tech stocks in various stages of doing nothing. Hence the trading range in the averages themselves. However, there is evidence of change here in that the formerly good Semis have turned not so good, while the not so good Software and MAG 7 stocks are much improved. If it’s hard to talk about THE market, it’s now even hard to talk about THE tech stocks. This fits in with a Bank of America survey of fund managers, 80% of whom say Semis are a crowded trade. Despite the strong agreement, however, seems FOMO rules, hard to let go of those winners. And, of course, the build out of Artificial Intelligence keeps the news more than good.
The prime winners in this rotation roulette have been Financials and Healthcare, both groups so broad they have kept market numbers healthy, while having a more subdued impact on the averages. Recent bank earnings were particularly strong, with trading playing a big part. Indeed, markets are booming according to Jamie Dimon, leading him to add “it’s getting close to as good as it gets.” A concern, or just his own “Tempest in a teapot.” There’s more here than just banks, of course, everything from Goldman Sachs (GS – 1096) to Capital One (COF – 212). Much the same seems true of Healthcare, with United Healthcare (UNH – 423) nearly a double just since April
Frank Gretz
PLEASE NOTE: Unless otherwise stated, the firm and any affiliated person or entity 1) either does not own any, or owns less than 1%, of the outstanding shares of any public company mentioned, 2) does not receive, and has not within the past 12 months received, investment banking compensation or other compensation from any public company mentioned, and 3) does not expect within the next three months to receive investment banking compensation or other compensation from any public company mentioned. The firm does not currently make markets in any public securities.
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